Le Cseries devient soudain un sérieux prétendant...
Encore une fois un très long article (traditionnellement le Flight papier qui sort avant le salon de Farnborough est épais....)
Quelques petits passages croustillants
Le point de départ est la compétition pour la commande de Républic...
Ou le Cseries a été confronté à la concurrence...
Deliveries of 138-seat, single-class CS300s to Republic's new Frontier Airlines subsidiary will begin in the second quarter of 2015, about a year-and-a-half after the first CSeries, a CS100, is due to enter service in late 2013. For Airbus and Boeing, the Republic contest "was the scary point in that it was the first time when they had real competition. They put their products against the CSeries. It was a good competition and they lost," says Avitas senior vice-president of consultancy Adam Pilarski.
"To me, this was serious. I think it was a wake-up call and everything to do with [Airbus and Boeing's current] re-engining studies comes from that," adds Pilarski, who felt compelled to express a similar opinion to Airbus's chief salesman John Leahy in March at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) conference in Orlando. "At ISTAT, I got annoyed with John Leahy, who called Bombardier 'snowmobile producers', and I said, 'look, John, there was a real competition and you lost'."
It is little wonder, then, that Bombardier is heading to the Farnborough air show with a new spring its step, or as Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski describes it, with "wind in their sales".
However, all eyes are now on the Canadian airframer to maintain that excitement, and produce more orders in the near term. "I think Farnborough will be important for them. That's not to say that if no orders are announced, it will collapse the programme, but if they don't, they'll have to announce something by the end of the summer to keep up that momentum we're talking about," says Jaworowski.
Even Teal Group's vice-president analysis Richard Aboulafia, who has traditionally taken a more sceptical view of the CSeries, particularly the 110-seat CS100, concedes that "a few more Republic-type orders, where there is a competition and where you can't write it off as 'Lufthansa being too clever by half with its fleet planning'", would cement Bombardier's status as a "major league" jetliner producer.
Même Aboulafia reconnait l'impact de ce premier gain (à quelles conditions financières ?) significatif... s'il devait y en avoir d'autres cela assoirait Bombardier chez les grands aux côté de Boeing et Airbus.
Quelques échéances rappelées
Detailed design phase for the CSeries will be completed early in 2011, after which Bombardier will move into the build phase for parts. The manufacturer plans to fly the CSeries in 2012 and deliver the first aircraft the following year. By the time first delivery takes place, however, the airframer will have already been testing the CSeries in the virtual world for about three years
Baseline target for the engine alone is a 16% fuel reduction, "which when we met recently with P&W, has [the] potential to be 40-45% higher - ie, a 20-25% improvement [plus] 50% reduction in NOx, 15% in CO2, 12% reduction in maintenance and an overall 20% reduction in total lifecycle costs", said Heymann during a recent interview with consultancy IAG.
He notes that 40% of airline costs today come from jet fuel "so you can save 6-7% over the best state-of-the-art equipment on the market today, and potentially this might grow to 8-10%".
La concurrence par au dessus
La concurrence par en dessous... avec un E195 amélioré ?
149-seat CS300, dismissing reports to the contrary as speculation. But Aboulafia and other analysts believes the Canadian airframer must move into the 150-plus seat category, particularly if its arch-rival Embraer moves to re-engine its E-Jets family, of which the largest member - the 195 - is capable of seating 122 passengers at maximum density.
"If Embraer re-engines then that product looks really a bit like a CS100 killer," says Aboulafia. "The centre of the market is increasingly gravitating towards the A320 and 737-800. So what's the point of [Bombardier] going after the diminishing part of the market when, for a relatively modest investment, you can go after a much greater segment, 150 seats," he says, adding that the CS300 - and not the CS100 - should be Bombardier's primary CSeries model. A 150-seater would "complement" this primary model, he says.
A suivre pour Bombardier qui se place sur un créneau où la concurrence est double...
Le reste est intéressant
A suivre donc la semaine prochaine...