Bombardier C-Séries (partie 1)

China’s Changjiang Leasing is negotiating with Bombardier over a possible order for CSeries airliners, but is reluctant to commit itself before it can be certain of the program schedule.
After the experience of the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 programs, it is difficult to place great trust in a manufacturer’s promised delivery dates, says Ren Weidong, executive vice president of the Hainan Airlines Group lessor.
“We are discussing it [a CSeries order] now,” he says. “The problem is when they can deliver the plane.”
Ren believes he has reasons to be skeptical. “I was the project manager for the 787 at Hainan Airlines.”
A Bombardier executive says airlines’ and lessors’ lack of trust in manufacturers’ development schedules has become a problem in selling the aircraft. The first delivery of a CSeries aircraft is due in 2013.
A CSeries order would be part of the expansion program at Changjiang, which Ren says will double its portfolio to 200 aircraft over the coming five to six years.
The company is expanding now by extending lease finance on aircraft that airlines have ordered, rather than by ordering itself. Available delivery slots generally are too far away, presenting too much risk for the lessor, Ren said on the sidelines of a conference, the Commercial Aircraft Forum in Shanghai.
There is no shortage of airlines seeking such financing, he added. Changjiang is itself financed mainly by bank loans.
Expansion will also include spreading Changjiang’s business beyond China. “We are talking to some foreign airlines now in Asia and elsewhere.”.
Ren sees narrowbody aircraft accounting for a rising proportion of the fleets of Chinese airlines as routes fragment and the system comes to look more like that of the United States.

• The CS program is taking 63 months for product development. This compares to Boeing's planned 48 months for the 787.
  
• They created the CIASTA program to test every part going in to the CS.
  
• The new wing is being tested in Belfast and passed the 150% stress test without breaking.
  
• The first fuselage arrived from China last year and is well into its lifecycle testing.
  

Bombardier is adamant that the CSeries is on schedule for its 2013 service debut, and believes that this is in part helped by its early testing programme.
Even though the CSeries only came out of its Joint Definition Phase in July the company is already testing parts of the airframe, as it begins the Detail Design Phase. It has constructed a demonstrator of the aft fuselage and the aft pressure bulkhead (which have been connected), presently located at its Plant One facility in Montreal.
Also located at Plant One is a fuselage bar rel tes t i tem, on which the manufacturer plans to further test the viability of the design and the materials by putting it through life cycle testing.
As of August 2010 the demonstrator had already experienced a life cycle – 60,000 cycles – and “anytime now” it will start testing its second life with cer tain damage and stresses added to further validate the integrity. Bombardier expects this test to be complete by November (as it can replicate a single
cycle in about a minute).
Even though for certification requirements only two life cycles are required, Bombardier has said that the
CSeries’ test articles will undergo three concurrent structural lives.
According to Gary Panton, manager engineering & supply chain at Plant One: “We are looking to out-source
some of the CSeries testing. Certainly, for at least one of the major rigs as we just don’t have the facilities here to accommodate it right now.”
He also said that after initial testing, the fuselages will undergo further testing, one for tests on the composites to determine composite life and the other fuselage will be subjected to fatigue testing on its aluminium-lithium construction. He added that the testing team at Plant One, which has two testing
hangars, expects to receive the first test fuselage in mid-2012.
The fuselages for production aircraft will be completed at Plant One (Bombardier has an agreement wi th China’s Shenyang Aircraft Corporation for it to build the aluminium-lithium segments before shipping the fuselage barrels to Quebec). After connecting the rest of the fuselage the part will then be sent to the Mirabel facility for integration into the final assembly line.
Panton added that one of the reasons for having built the demonstrator aft fuselage and aft pressure bulkhead is to learn about manufacturing issues that may arise from its production. “We want to develop the experience and be able to develop the right tooling,” he said.
“We have started testing this early so that we can make final adjustments to the final design from the lessons we are already learning,” he explained.
And this is precisely why the aluminium lithium that Shenyang Aircraft Corporation is using for the fuselage is already in its third generation. “Already the metal is becoming much better and more workable for us,” explained
Panton. The company claims that it is 7% lighter than usual airframe aluminium. “It’s stronger, so you don’t need to use as much. And because of its improved fatigue attributes we can also reduce the thickness of the metal,” added Panton.
The OEM is adamant that choosing a metal for the bulk of the fuselage is the right choice for a regional jet. Panton explained: “Because the CSeries is a much smaller jet than the primarily composite Boeing 787, it has a much higher utilisation rate and therefore spends more time on the ground, which we know means the potential exposure to ground damage is that much higher.
A metal is much easier to repair than composite as it can be patched up, and this has been backed up by our own trade studies.”

Tests, tunnels & rigs

Panton said that Bombardier has already invested around $40-million in its windtunnel models, of which to date
there are 40, and that aerodynamic wind tunnel testing is about 80% complete.
Also, because of its aerodynamic tests the manufacturer is bullish that London City approval will not be a problem.
Panton explained that because of the wing’s large size the aircraft has a greater take-off capability, making LCY an easy-to-use airfield.
At Plant Eight, located at MirabelAirport, it has in place its Complete Integrated Aircraft System Testing Area (CIASTA), which has been handed over to the testing team. It is here that the aircraft’s systems will be tested and further developed.
CIASTA will also play home to a fully fledged flight simulator that is being developed by CAE to allow the test pilots a chance to get to know the aircraft before taking to the sky a full year before first flight. “We are going to use the simulator to do test flights with the test pilots so they can start replicating the tests they’ll be doing in the air. This simulator is due to be in place sometime
next year,” Panton said.
Plant Eight will also play host to the final assembly and delivery hangars for both the CS100 and CS300 variants, and Bombardier believes that if it reaches its goal of a 50% market share that this
would lead to around 3,500 people working on CSeries production at full capacity.


It is also at Mirabel that Pratt & Whitney will manufacture the PW1000G engine.
According to Sebastien Mullot, director, CSeries programme: “It’s nice to have the engine being built just next door. This really gives us dollar value because the unit is such a high value item, it doesn’t have to be transported far.”
Meanwhile at its BAN 2 facility, just north of Pierre Trudeau International airport, it has in place the Reconfigurable Engineering Flight Simulator (REFS).
REFS is already being used to test and further develop the aircraft’s fly-by-wire control system.
Although this simulator is purely designed to test the software and as such is not full representative of the
final CSeries cockpit, it already features a potential production sidestick and autopilot functionality.
Among the novel features is the use of the trim. In its current form the trim control is located on the sidestick, and rather than trimming an aircraft in the traditional sense the pilot uses this to adjust the desired speed while the computer will then figure out what pitch angle is required for the climb, providing
enough throttle is set.
And while this is not yet representative of the finished control system, it is certainly a different take. According to Ben Boehm, vp aircraft programmes, the sidestick design isn’t just for aesthetics.
“The fact that we are now the ‘Nintendo’generation is one of the reasons, but it is also about saving weight. Plus pilot studies have shown that a sidestick is good because it allows the primary flight displays to be easily seen and gives more space in the cockpit. Even hardcore Boeing pilots that love having a yoke say this!”
Bombardier is also optimistic that a 50% share of the market is not far fetched.
Even though right now the manufacturer only has 90 orders Boehm said he was not fazed by any perceived lack of
orders. “We still have three years before the entry into service” and that his real focus is on being able to answer the question of airlines as to when an OEM will finally deliver on time. He says that that time will come when the CSeries enters service in 2013.
Furthermore Boehm says airlines are now learning more about the aircraft, as the performance specifications have been set. He said: “Airlines are starting to do network analysis with the aircraft, and with three years before it enters service there is plenty of time for more orders and more analysis on the benefits of the CSeries.”
And future orders are something the company expects to be a mix between aircraft replacement and new growth.
It predicts (using figures from Airbus, Boeing and its own forecasts) a market for 6,700 jet deliveries in the 100-149 seat market up until 2029, valued at $393 billion. Not to mention what it calls a lack of investment by the industry in this sector.
This is what it perceives will help boost its sales. “We have the only aircraft optimised for this market, not
to mention the only platform with 21st century technology,” added Boehm.
A key number of these deliveries, 3,000,will be for replacement aircraft. And that, according to Bombardier research, there are at present some 2,000 aircraft in service that are over 15 years old.
“The industry has not invested in this segment, and this is obvious because of the high number of MD-80s still flying.
There is no alternative,” added Boehm. It is with the optimisation that the company is really pushing. “The
CSeries will shift cash operating costs because of its efficiency, and because it is designed for this segment,” explained Boehm. And it is because of this optimisation that Boehm says the CSeries can not only offer a 33% reduction in cash operating costs over a 500nm route, but also still have a 1% lower seat cost than a 737-700 over the same route – with fewer seats.
“By using a CSeries aircraft on such a route the aircraft does not need to be at full capacity to make money, as opposed to using a larger aircraft on smaller routes for the lower seat operating costs.
“There are also many routes that are not really economically viable, but with a CSeries there is the possibility to make such routes profitable,” Boehm added.
Jean-Francois Tessier, manager, program planning, development and customer requirements, believes that
the CSeries is particularly appealing in Europe because of its range and low noise. “It will be 20dB under the Stage IV limit. And we’re not predicting this; we can base this on real data from the flight-testing of the engine.
“Moreover the CSeries will be able to operate from London City, and offer twice the range of current aircraft. It really does have the range capability of an Airbus A319, but the take off capability of an Avro RJ. It is unheard of for an aircraft to be able to offer more than a 700nm range from LCY. With a
CSeries 1,500nm is possible, and this means the possibility for example of connecting LCY with Moscow,” added
Tessier.
Overall Tessier is adamant that so soon in the programme’s life having three customers and a spread between
Europe, North America and a leasing company is a good thing. He also said the company planned to sell “quite a
few” to leasing companies because the cabin is “going to be very easy to change in a modular fashion. You can
pretty much do anything with it”.
And given Bombardier’s track record it would certainly be logical to assume the future possibility of a CSeries-derived business jet

...
Dans un monde idéal, la CSeries prendrait le relais. Mais pour l'instant, c'est tout sauf. Des clients pressentis de la première heure comme Qatar Airways se font tirer l'oreille. Et les transporteurs dont l'intérêt doit se traduire prochainement en commandes fermes - c'est pour bientôt, répète-t-on de téléconférence en téléconférence - ressemblent de plus en plus à des clients imaginaires.

La triste réalité, c'est que cinq ans après le lancement de la CSeries, l'avionneur ne compte que 90 avions en commande ferme, de trois clients. Or, Bombardier s'était fixé pour objectif d'avoir entre 50 et 100 avions en commande de plus de un client avant même de se lancer dans cette aventure de plus de 3 milliards US.

Les dirigeants de Bombardier ont tout fait pour minimiser la riposte d'Airbus d'hier. Cet avionneur européen proposera à ses clients d'équiper ses plus petits jets commerciaux de la famille A320 avec le même moteur sélectionné par Bombardier.

Guy Hachey, président et chef de l'exploitation de Bombardier Aéronautique, a noté avec justesse que si Airbus sélectionne lui aussi le PurePower de Pratt & Whitney, ce moteur en développement ne doit pas être si bancal que cela. Il a aussi insisté sur le fait que les économies en carburant promises par Airbus seront atténuées par la lourdeur du A319, qui devra être modifié pour accommoder des moteurs plus pesants. Encore ici, Guy Hachey a raison.

Toutefois, il est clair que Bombardier servira de cobaye à Airbus. S'il y a des problèmes avec ce moteur, c'est l'avionneur montréalais qui en souffrira le premier. Par ailleurs, Bombardier devra s'assurer de respecter son calendrier, qui prévoit une première livraison en 2013. En préférant changer de moteur plutôt que de redessiner complètement le A320 et ses dérivés A319 et A321, Airbus pourrait offrir des avions plus performants dès 2016. Pour les pressés, l'avantage de Bombardier ne durera que trois ans.

Est-ce que Bombardier convaincra les transporteurs de troquer le A319 d'Airbus pour tester un appareil sans historique qui n'a pas de points en commun avec le reste de leurs parcs d'avions? Tout cela parce qu'il est un peu moins coûteux et gourmand en carburant?

Jusqu'ici, la réponse est tristement non. Et avec une reprise qui ramollit, on ne voit pas quand le vent tournera.

Bombardier n'avait pas le choix de tenter le pari - risqué - de la CSeries. Le marché se déplace vers des appareils de plus en plus grands. Et puis, l'avionneur montréalais ne pouvait plus étirer une autre fois ses jets régionaux. Mais le conseil d'administration a maintenant la responsabilité de se poser des questions difficiles.

Si les commandes n'entrent pas, faut-il faire marche arrière avec la CSeries, compte tenu de ses frais de développement élevés? Est-ce que l'aviation commerciale reste un créneau intéressant pour Bombardier, vu les difficultés financières quasi perpétuelles des compagnies aériennes? Sinon, faudrait-il envisager un retrait de ce secteur, de la même façon que Bombardier a cédé ses activités patrimoniales dans la fabrication de motoneiges et de motomarines?

Dures questions pour dure semaine.

By their current competitive responses, Airbus and Boeing validate the business case for the CSeries;
The CSeries has a superior cash operating cost advantage over the current A318 and A319, retains significant advantage over the A319neo (the A318 won’t be re-engined) and compares favorably with the A320neo;
The CSeries has a superior cash operating cost advantage over the Boeing 737-600 (none has been sold since 2005) and the 737-700 and compares favorably with the 737-800;
The NEO program provides Airbus with economic advantages over the 737NG;
The CSeries has a superior cash operating cost advantage over the Embraer E190-195 jets;
The 100-149 seat market, while representing only 25% of the total single aisle market forecast by Airbus and Boeing over the next 20 years, is significant and worth pursuing;
Airbus and Boeing are up-gauging airplanes in their future forecasts and will either have to abandon the 100-149 seat market or develop two airplane types to cover the 100-240 seat market identified in their forecasts;
Airbus faces a greater threat from the CSeries than Boeing and has greater incentive to “kill” the CSeries in its infancy;
Boeing is not blind to the threat the CSeries offers to its single-aisle product line now and in the future;
The CSeries in a 150-seat CS500 and the current 130-seat CS300 can replace 175 Boeing 737 Classics and 86 Boeing 717s at Southwest Airlines/AirTran and save Southwest hundreds of millions of dollars before Boeing could respond with a new airplane;
Bombardier should develop the CS500 variant; and
The Pratt & Whitney P1000G Geared Turbo Fan powering the CSeries (and Airbus NEO program) has the ability to further cut fuel consumption dramatically by 2020 (when Boeing currently is talking about a new airplane) and 2027 (when Airbus is currently talking about a new airplane), pre-empting the prospect of a more complete open rotor engine concept.