Boeing 787 (partie 2)

With final certification submittals to the US Federal Aviation Administration in sight, Boeing aims to deliver the first 787 to Japan's All Nippon Airways around the third week of September, but is not likely to deliver more than five or six 787s before the close of the year, say company and industry sources, who say the slow pace of progress of reworking and outfitting each airframe is taking longer than expected.

Further, ahead of a planned critical program review in the late summer or early fall, an entry into service slip of the larger 787-9 appears almost certain, say company, supplier, industry sources pushing handover to of the first aircraft to launch customer Air New Zealand into the first half of 2014 with an additional delay of three to six months, due to a slower than expected pace of design, possibly paired with a more modest production ramp up.

Boeing said it would provide updated 2011 delivery guidance at its July 27 second quarter earnings call, but declined to say if it would update its 787-9 entry into service target from its late 2013 goal, but said its current target remains unchanged.

Yet the company's near term halt in deliveries to final assembly highlights the remaining challenges of how the 787 production system learns and achieves 10 aircraft per month by 2013, all while standing up its second final assembly line in Charleston.

Sources on both sides of the US say that completion of the 787's aft body has been of particular focus during the delivery hold, which is expected to expire in early August.

"The adjustment is due to a few production areas in the supply chain experiencing temporary challenges related to spot parts shortages and remaining engineering change incorporation," says Boeing.

Going into the month-long delivery hold, the first shipsets for the newly opened Charleston final assembly were the first to be delivered with 100% completion of assembly, the first in the program's history.

While on its surface an extremely positive development for a program that has worked for years to eliminate incomplete shipsets, multiple sources confirm that both Airplane 45 had considerably lower completion in comparison to earlier aircraft, and Airplane 47 - which has not yet been delivered to Everett - was expected to carry considered travelled work before the delivery halt.

The cause, say those with direct familiarity in Everett and Charleston, stemmed from Airplanes 45 and 47 being "cannibalized" for Airplane 46's completion.

Boeing says: "We're not confirming supplier by supplier details, nor completion of assembly by line number."

The Aerospace Learning Curve

While Boeing has sought to take advantage of lean manufacturing techniques built into the production system, the reality, and the uneveness of completion, illustrates how the lean processes have been hard to meet deeper in the supply chain.

Notably, that as completion of assembly decreases and work is pushed later in the supply chain or even to final assembly, those responsible for the task completion are denied the opportunity to learn a steady repetition in their statement of work, say those with direct familiarity with the 787's production system.

Though the 787 final assembly line in Everett is definitively improving say company sources, citing Airplane 40 as an important turning point, with the first to have all of its flight controls - including long-missing flaps - installed before leaving the factory, along with its auxiliary power unit.

Despite the steady improvement the unevenness in production, and the amount of rework required on Airplanes ahead of 40, highlight how aerospace manufacturing systems "learn" at different rates.

The industry standard places the "curve" at around 85%. An 85% learning curve denotes for every doubling of production, the cost of each completed aircraft is reduced by another 15%.

For example, if the first item is at the top of the learning curve costs $1, the second will cost $.85 to produce. The fourth will cost 85% of the second at $.72, and the eighth 85% of fourth.

"The 85% learning curve is kind of the text book long-range average," says Scott Fancher, 787 vice president and general manager, "But in fact, when we look at our database of actual learning curves across many programs, you see quite a wide variation."

"It really depends upon the automation, the maturity of that automation the complexity of the structure being put together, the quality and the experience of workforce and the training of the workforce.

"It's hard to draw conclusions about what you would expect on 787 from that number," he adds.

In areas that have seen very little traveled work and not had a lot of design changes, Fancher says, "our productivity and quality numbers are better than our projections, we're very pleased the way that aspect is coming together."

When asked if those areas were exceeding the 85% textbook curve, Fancher would only say "They're doing better than our projections" without offering specifics.

UBS Research analyst, David Strauss, said in a June report that estimated the 777's learning curve to be approximately 84%, ahead of the industry average.

"Our analysis indicates that Boeing is assuming much faster learning on 787 than it was able to achieve on 777 despite having less control of production this time," says Strauss, who estimates that each 787 costs approximately $250 to 300 million.

Based on Boeing's disclosure that it expects its per aircraft cost to fall below the program's averaged cost as it hits its production rate of 10 per month at the end of 2014, the 787 production system must achieve a 24% learning curve, nearly 50% higher than 777.

If Boeing achieves a learning curve comparable to the 777 "we see 787 burning $4 billion in cash on average annually through 2015," he adds.

The Final Weeks

Boeing is anticipating completion of 787 extended operations (ETOPS) and systems functionality and reliability (F&R) testing by the close of July, following Airplane Nine's remote deployment to Guam, which is underway.

Company sources expect final documentation is expected to be handed over to the US Federal Aviation early to mid August with an approximately 30 day review period to follow culminating in awarding of the 787's type certificate in early September.

The handover of Airplane Eight is expected around the third week of September, with Airplane 24 to follow closely after, the subsequent airframes at Boeing ATS - are advancing, but not at the pace needed to make room allowing for the 12 to 20 787 deliveries the company forecast earlier this year.

According to Leeham Co, Boeing guidance is expected to be closer to eight or nine 787s delivered in 2011.

The first 787 for launch customer All Nippon Airways will enter revenue service in October connecting a charter route between Tokyo-Narita International Airport and Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok Airport.

Boeing has completed the extended operations (ETOPS) test points portion of its 300h certification systems functionality and reliability (F&R) testing for the Boeing 787 programme.
"Now that our planned ETOPS testing is in the books, the team will spend the next few weeks finishing function & reliability (F&R) demonstrations that lead up to initial type certification of the 787 with Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines," said Boeing vice president of marketing Randy Tinseth.
As of test aircraft ZA001's visit to EAA AirVenture in Oshkosh, Wisconsin on 29 July, Boeing had completed "two-thirds" of F&R testing, said Dan Mooney, vice president of 787-8 development.
Airplane Nine, ZA102, a production conforming 787 for launch operator All Nippon Airways (ANA), is being tasked with the ETOPS/F&R trials which first began on 26 June.
Many of the ETOPS trials included shutting down one of the two Trent 1000 engines for 345min before landing and simulating a single engine diversion up to the 330min ETOPS requirement.
Mooney said that during the extended single engine operations, crews would restart the shut down engine for landing, but fly at idle power and disconnect its power distributing generators to accurately simulate the aircraft behaviour in the event of an engine shutdown.

The 787 will initially be certified up to a 180min ETOPS requirement, allowing the aircraft to fly three hours from a suitable diversion airport, with a 330min certification to follow in early 2012 ahead of delivery to United Airlines for its Houston to Auckland route.
The second phase of ETOPS approval was necessitated by the FAA which required a software change for displaying low fuel quantity.
ZA102 capped its ETOPS trials with a 27 July maximum endurance flight that lasted 18h 7min, the longest in the programme's history, flying from Guam to Hawaii and across the western United States before turning back east over Washington state for a return to Paine Field at the company's Everett, Washington facility.
Boeing expects to achieve 787 type certification in late-August, with first delivery to ANA to follow by the end of September

Morimoto said ANA’s operations will not be compromised by the fact that its initial deliveries will be over Boeing’s specified weight. The issue is difficult to pin down, because Fancher said – and Morimoto confirmed – that all of the aircraft delivered will meet contract specifications. Regardless, Fancher said all of the -8s will be able to reach Europe or destinations in the East Coast of the U.S.

Nonetheless, Boeing continues to try to drive weight out of the 787. Its initial block, from line number seven to 20/21 are, naturally, the heaviest. The next block break is at line 34/35 – Fancher said the split represents changes spread between the two aircraft – with the next blocks splitting at line number 50 and 90. Weight drops will continue through 50, he said, but the aircraft configuration is expected to be more stable from there through 90. “We’ll have a little at 90,” he said.

Introduction of the stretched 787-9, with nominal seating of 250-290 and a top range of 8,500 nautical miles (300 farther than the top end of the 787-8’s) remains on track for 2013.

“We’re very pleased with the [design] progress,” Fancher said. “Our projections for performance of the 787-9 has been very stable now for two years. We’re not seeing any of the early warning indicators for design stability that we saw on the 787-8 with regard to weight or aerodynamic performance.”

Within 4-6 weeks, the -9 will be at its next major milestone, the so-called triple-program review, he said. That puts the program “well into detailed design.”

Boeing Commercial Airplane CEO Jim Albaugh says its 787 programme has 24h of US Federal Aviation Administration certification flight testing remaining, and is expected to complete systems functionality and reliability (F&R) evaluations before 15 August.
"The good news is we only have 24h left in the flight test programme," said Albaugh who was speaking at the Jeffries Aerospace and Defence conference in New York.
"We hope to complete the flight test programme probably sometime this weekend. We think the FAA is going to hold their type [certification] review board next week and we hope to get our ticket - so we can start delivering the 787," he added.
Boeing began 300h of F&R and Extended Operations (ETOPS) testing on 26 June with Airplane Nine, dubbed ZA102, and completed the ETOPS portion testing on 2 August.
The company will first certify the 787 with Package A Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines, and anticipates certification of the 787 with General Electric GEnx-1B engines in the fourth quarter, followed by improvement packages for R-R and GE engines to be certified at a later yet-unspecified date.
Albaugh expects first delivery of the 787, the airframer's eighth aircraft built, to launch customer All Nippon Airways in September

He said the "pinch point" in the supply chain remains the centre fuselage integration and aft fuselage fabrication facilities at the company's North Charleston, South Carolina facility.
Formerly operated as Global Aeronautica and Vought Aircraft Industries, respectively, Boeing purchased both in phases during 2008 and 2009 to regain cost control and direct oversight of the facilities.
Albaugh said that the challenges to ramping up the 787 to 10 per month are centred upon three primary areas: Design change incorporation stemming from flight test, ensuring the supply chain is capable of ramping up and the experience of the workforce in South Carolina.

The initial certification will provide Boeing regulatory approval for its 787 powered by Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 Package A engines.

The second engine choice, the General Electric GEnx-1B, is expected to achieve certification in the fourth quarter.

Rolls-Royce plans to introduce a Package B upgrade for the Trent 1000 at the end of the year and a first Performance Improvement Package (PIP1) for the GEnx is expected at a later date.

The initial certification will provide Boeing regulatory approval for its 787 powered by Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 Package A engines.

The second engine choice, the General Electric GEnx-1B, is expected to achieve certification in the fourth quarter.

Rolls-Royce plans to introduce a Package B upgrade for the Trent 1000 at the end of the year and a first Performance Improvement Package (PIP1) for the GEnx is expected at a later date.

The program has the potential to be the company’s most lucrative ever, say Barclays Plc analysts Joe Campbell and Carter Copeland.
The problem is that Boeing has probably spent $300 million to build each 787 and will realize revenue of as little as $50 million apiece for the early models, the analysts estimate.
The 45th plane to be built -- in the factory now -- will probably cost Boeing at least $184 million, Harned estimated after analyzing inventory figures. That would make the average cost over the first 1,000 jets, including a learning curve, at least $116 million per plane, he projects. FAA approval this week after a flight-test program that began in December 2009 would set the stage for delivery of the first 787 to All Nippon Airways Co. next month.
About half the 787s in Boeing’s inventory were already built last year, before the company had to push back targets again because of a fire during a test flight. Testing took 20 months instead of the eight originally planned.
Rain and Fire
Each plane is in a different state of readiness, since Boeing kept improving processes after the jets began rolling out of the factory in 2009.
They have undergone waves of repairs based on testing discoveries, and numerous jobs remain on “various and sundry components” before they’re ready for delivery, said Scott Fancher, Boeing’s 787 chief.
One of those jobs has been to install new condensation- collection systems to handle “rain in the plane” found in flight tests, a byproduct of the extra moisture in the air allowed by the composite fuselages. Workers also have had to replace electrical power distribution panels with redesigned parts after the fire grounded the test fleet at the end of 2010.
Delivery Plans
The modifications have forced Boeing to pare its delivery plans for this year by several planes, to fewer than 14.
Not only does Boeing have to hurry to fix the jets at the front end of the factory so they can be delivered, it also needs to cure its manufacturing woes at the back end so that shipments can get on track once the 787 is certified for use.
Production has been stalled at a rate of two a month for more than a year and Boeing has routinely frozen the final- assembly line in Everett for catch-up sessions, the most recent of which was a four-week pause last month.
“We want to see a little more clarity on when we can start anticipating a steady flow of deliveries and a sense that we’ve really got the factory floor straightened out” before buying the stock again, Batcheller said. “At that point it becomes attractive.”
Most airlines’ contracts have clauses providing penalties for delays, so Boeing needs to make up for the lost time. Some of the changes generated by tests are already in the production pipeline and won’t have to be made retroactively.
“Anytime you’re building an airplane out of sequence, the amount of work that’s required probably goes up by a factor of 10, because they have to unbuild all the things you built on top of whatever you have to change, and then build it all back,” said Demisch, the consultant. “It’s better than starting the airplanes from scratch, but it’s cost that will be added to production and make the likelihood of a profit on this program over the next half-dozen years very, very low.”

At launch, the 7E7-8 had an average list price of USD120 million. I have heard one source claim NH received a 50% launch discount due to the size of their order. So if true, they paid about USD60 million per 787-8.

By 2005, that average list price (now for the 787- rose to USD146 million.

I have multiple data points that claim the average discount for the 787-8 in 2005 was 25%. Now before you call "baloney", note that Boeing was offering a 777-class airplane for a 767-class list price in an attempt to reduce the average discounting rate (which at the time for a widebody was around 35%). Also note that airlines really wanted this plane, in part because of the numbers Boeing was claiming and in part because the list price was USD30 million below the A330-200's.

So figure the average price paid for the 235 orders secured in 2005 was USD110 million.

By 2007, list price for the 787-8 was USD162 million and the average discount was now 35% for an average sale price of $105 million for the next 500 frames.




As for compensation payments, Macquarie Equities Research analyst Robert Stallard claimed that the total compensation Boeing had paid out by the end of 2009 was just over $5 billion, averaging $6 million per airframe. NH, JL, LA, FM and HY all accepted 767-300ERs in lieu of cash payments, which helps explains the flush of orders for the model.

QF received just under USD300 million in compensation through 2009 (though they subsequently cancelled some of their order) and AI agreed to USD500 million earlier this year after demanding USD1 billion.

ETOPS :
The 787-8 has been evaluated in accordance with CS 25.1535 and found suitable for
180-minute Extended Range Operations with Two-Engine Airplanes (ETOPS).

http://easa.europa.eu/certification/type-certificates/docs/aircrafts/EASA-TCDS-A.115_%28IM%29_Boeing_787-01-26082011.pdf

Beochien a écrit:Bonjour !

ZFW : 104100 kg A vide, sans rien ... OK !
Airbus a du souci à se faire pour le A358 !
Là ils ont fait fort chez Boeing !
Chapeau bas si c'est certain ! (Et ça doit l'être qq part !)
Sauf que c'est peut être sans sièges ni aménagements ... (Mon idée)
http://easa.europa.eu/certification/typ ... 082011.pdf

art_way a écrit:

ETOPS :
The 787-8 has been evaluated in accordance with CS 25.1535 and found suitable for
180-minute Extended Range Operations with Two-Engine Airplanes (ETOPS).

http://easa.europa.eu/certification/type-certificates/docs/aircrafts/EASA-TCDS-A.115_%28IM%29_Boeing_787-01-26082011.pdf

The 787-10 variant, seen as a "relatively small statement of work", said Piasecki, would be a stretch of the 250- to 290-seat 787-9, and would offer a performance of approximately 320 passengers, twin 74,000lb (329kN) engines, with a range of 6,800nm (12,600km), slightly lower than its June estimate of 6,900nm.
Ahead of the 787-10's potential launch, Boeing plans to introduce the 787-9 at the end of 2013, which is expected to undergo its critical programme review (CPR) later in September "building off the load and flight test data on the 787-8", said Piasecki.