Avionneurs : prospective 2010

2009 was by no means a great year for Airbus, but in the duopolistic world it lives in, at least it can walk away saying it delivered more aircraft and took in more orders than its archrival Boeing.

Boeing today released its commercial aircraft figures for 2009. The final Airbus numbers aren’t out – the European aircraft maker never seems to report before Boeing – but it is already clear that Airbus will have the nose ahead.

How meaningful the annual "orders race" is can be debated. It's the long-term trend that matters, and that has kept the two close together year-in, year-out.


But it does make for nice bragging rights, and, without a doubt, Airbus sales chief John Leahy next week will take full advantage when he unveils his figures.

So, here’s roughly how they match up (the Airbus numbers are estimates or rumored figures, so when the proper ones come out on Tuesday, you can all see how wrong I was):




Boeing Airbus

Deliveries 481 498

Gross Order Intake 263 300

Net Order Intake 142 270

Backlog 3,375 3,482




The most interesting figure is clearly the difference between gross and net orders.

Last year, Boeing suffered a huge number of cancellations compared to Airbus. That’s particularly interesting because the two sides often squabble over who has the healthier backlog. For the moment, Airbus’s backlog is not just larger, it also is holding up better

The succession of boom years that faltered in 2008 came to a full stop in 2009, with Airbus and Boeing's net orders tumbling by 1,000 units from the 1,400 of the previous year.

With the world's economy only just showing signs of a recovery, the airframers' fortunes are unlikely to see a turnaround in 2010. But one or two major orders can still be expected as the likes of Emirates and United Airlines go shopping in "the sales" for some sporty deals.

"Most of the important economic and airline industry indicators are likely to be relatively flat in 2010, arguing for another slow year for orders," says Teal Group vice-president analysis Richard Aboulafia.



"Of course, with 7,000 on backlog, the industry shouldn't care about orders. The fact that it does shows that the current 7,000 don't mean much, and that, paradoxically, the goal of orders is seriously flawed. We need traffic and profits. And 2010 looks like a very slow recovery."

Next week Airbus will reveal whether it reached the sales target it set back in January 2009 of 300 gross orders for the year. By the end of the 11th month, the airframer's sales had reached 225, so that the full-year goal was just about within reach if it was able to get its usual flurry of deals signed off by year-end.

Boeing's 2009 fortunes in the order stakes were stymied by the high number of cancellations for the 787, which dragged down its net sales to around the 100-aircraft mark. This year it will be looking to shore up the remainder of the Dreamliner's backlog and underline its ability to meet its revised schedule with a successful flight-test programme without further delivery slips.

Neither manufacturer has issued detailed 2010 production guidance, but after output hit a record 970-plus units last year few would expect that level to be sustained in 2010.

"Production needed to come down a year ago," says Aboulafia. "The glut of narrowbodies is particularly worrying."

In defence of their ability to keep producing despite the economic turmoil, the airframers cite the "myth" that 2009 delivery financing would be a major issue. In reality the gap did not materialise on the scale forecast by some analysts. After talk of shortfalls as high as $20 billion, Boeing Capital (BCC) data shows that the manufacturers (Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer) had to find just $2.5 billion of the $68 billion needed for 2009 deliveries.




Much of the shortfall was made up by the government-run export credit agencies, which provided $21 billion - up 68% on the $12.5 billion in 2008.

Aboulafia says that while it is "fun for a while" for the airframers to use government-backed finance to support what he believes is overproduction, "with traffic not likely to make much of a recovery in 2010, build rates will start to come down in the second half of the year".

BCC estimates that in 2010 the airframers will have to provide a similar level of financial support, although it expects that the overall delivery funding requirement will fall 8% to $62 billion due to reduced production rates.


Aboulafia believes that the two airframers should cut output by 10-15% this year, which would push the total deliveries to below 850 units. "But this industry is the ultimate lagging economic indicator. Production won't bottom out until 2011, or perhaps even 2012."

BCC's head of capital markets development, Kostya Zolotusky, argues that the airframers are maintaining high production in the face of the global slump because "the aircraft are needed", due to three fundamental dynamic changes.

He says: "The global balance of demand is broader; there is a greater diversity of airline business models than before - low cost leasing is a relevant counter-balance to the lack of demand from legacy carriers - and we are moving into a higher plateau of oil prices which necessitates a greater replacement requirement."

DELIVERY-SLOT SWAPS

This broadening of the "balance of demand" made 2009 the year of "delivery-slot swaps". Airlines in regions less affected by the slump - for example Gulf carriers Gulf Air, FlyDubai and Qatar Airways - were able to advance their schedules by taking over other airlines' airframes as they approached the end of the production line. This helped keep production up without the usual glut of white tails, but whether the airline industry will have the same appetite for this in 2010 remains to be seen.

In terms of civil programmes, Airbus and Boeing have fairly full "to-do" lists this year. Top of the US airframer's list is to push the 787 through flight-testing without further hitches, and to get the 747-8 in the air. Both aircraft are due for first deliveries by year-end - for now at least.

Meanwhile, Toulouse will start to see the fruits of its A350 XWB development effort as major sections of the first aircraft should start to come together at plants across Europe and the USA ahead of final assembly beginning early in 2011.

A more immediate priority is to complete flight-testing of the A330-200F and begin deliveries to Etihad Airways in the summer.

Sorting out A380 production is also a pressing requirement, as Airbus admits that the process of assembling and customising the super jumbo continues to take too long. Expect the airframer to implement more changes in Toulouse and Hamburg, sooner rather than later.

In terms of product development, there could be some key decisions taken by Airbus and Boeing in 2010, and all linked to engines. Both airframers look increasingly likely to develop re-engined versions of the current single-aisle products powered by one or more of the next generation turbofans in development by CFM International, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce. Potential developments could crystallise over the next 12 months as the engine makers firm up their own plans.

Any moves from the big two will increase the pressure on Bombardier to sign up more airlines for its CSeries small airliner, having so far only secured a deal from Lufthansa/Swiss and lessor LCI.


"It badly needs a second notable customer," says Aboulafia. "Despite the grim times, there's a good chance of someone signing up in 2010, but if Airbus and Boeing turn aggressive about re-engining their products in 2010, all bets are off on the CSeries."

Embraer is also evaluating a move into the CSeries space, but it too wants more clarity from the engine makers - and a better steer on the likely moves from Airbus and Boeing - before it commits. If this does happen in 2010, expect to see Embraer in the thick of it.

At the other end of the spectrum, Boeing seems to be coming under pressure to decide what it does about the adapting its successful 777 twinjet to be more effective against the A350. The airframer is examining various options from a refresh, a re-wing and an all-new aircraft, but the likelihood is that whatever it goes for will hinge on the availability of a new engine - probably from existing exclusive supplier GE.

Russia and China are gearing up to be right in the mix of the next generation single-aisle market, with both having all-new airliners in development that will be powered by next-generation powerplants from P&W and CFM respectively. More clarity should emerge on these programmes during 2010.

REGIONAL ARRIVALS

Down among the regionals, there should be a raft of new arrivals in 2010, the most notable of which will be the two brand-new airliners from Russia and China that are due to make their debuts - the Sukhoi Superjet 100 and Comac ARJ21. Both types had originally been due to enter service in 2009, but should now begin earning money this year.

Bombardier meanwhile will finally introduce what should be the last iteration of its big selling regional jet, the 100-seat CRJ1000, but will it prove to be as stretch too far?

Airbus lands 271 net orders in 2009 and sets deliveries record
By David Kaminski-Morrow

Airbus secured net orders for 271 aircraft in 2009, far ahead of Boeing's 142.

Gross orders for the airframer totalled 310. Airbus parent EADS had been maintaining a forecast of 300.

The figures have been lifted by the firming in December of recent agreements with Air New Zealand, LAN, Virgin Atlantic and China Eastern Airlines.

Airbus detailed the figures at an event in Seville today.

It declared gross orders for 228 A320-family aircraft, 78 A330/340/350s and four A380s.

EADS chief Louis Gallois says that 2009 was "not an easy year", and adds that the financial position of airlines in 2010 is still a "topic of concern".



Airbus delivered 498 aircraft over the course of 2009, a record figure for the airframer.

The deliveries included 402 A320-family aircraft. It also delivered 86 A330/340s and 10 A380s.

"Considering the economical and financial environment we have done rather well in 2009," says Airbus chief Tom Enders.

But he admits that the failure to meet the A380 delivery target is a "disappointment".

The airframer is aiming to deliver "at least" 20 A380s this year.

Enders adds that, over the past 18 months, deferrals and other changes affected 600 aircraft over the 2009-11 period.

Airbus and Boeing see thawing of A380/747 demand this year
By Max Kingsley-Jones

Airbus and Boeing are hopeful that 2010 will see orders begin to rebound for their ultra-large airliners, although both acknowledge that the market remains tough in the aftermath of last year's global downturn.

In 2009 Airbus and Boeing secured just nine new ultra-large aircraft orders - four A380s and five 747-8s. However, while Airbus did not suffer any A380 cancellations, its US rival lost three 747-8 orders, dropping its net sales to two units and the A380/747 combined total to six aircraft.

Boeing chief executive James McNerney expects that orders will begin coming in for the 747-8 later in 2010: "I think you're going to see some thaw in this market toward the second half of this year. You'll see some orders that are in the midst of discussions right now," McNerney told delegates at the Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defence Conference in Cleveland, Ohio in mid-February.


Boeing


McNerney appeared to signal that the all-cargo 747-8F, rather than the -8I passenger model, was the leading candidate for more orders in the near term. Freight operators "have been focused wholly on getting capacity out for the last 18 months, now they realise they may be short. So we're getting pickup on discussions on the freighter side," he said.

At the Singapore air show in early February, Airbus's chief operating officer customers John Leahy acknowledged that "there won't be an awful lot" of A380 orders this year, but indicated that 2010 should start to see a recovery. "The number of A380 orders this year will probably be around 10," he said. "We're still in a bit of a recession and in down periods the 747/A380 category is the one that the big carriers tend put off the decision to order."




McNerney concurs, saying that the current trading conditions make selling the passenger version of the 747-8I difficult. "We've kept a lot of passenger discussions warm on this side, but no-one is buying $250 million machines. We're hopeful that some things could popthe recession has not helped its marketing," he said in Cleveland.

Despite the slow sales pace of the A380 in recent years, Airbus is still resolute in its view that the 202 orders taken so far are just the tip of the iceberg in the long-term market, and expects the Asian carriers to be key to untapping this demand.

"We see the Asian market accounting for more than half of the A380's forecast open demand over the next 20 years," says A380 product marketing chief Richard Carcaillet. That equates to Asia needing around 880 of forecast 1,300 ultra-large airliners to be delivered. "We think the A380 will claim the bulk of this demand," he adds.




Carcaillet, who predicts that the major A380 operators will eventually have fleets of "50 aircraft or more", expects the double-decker's demonstrated strong passenger appeal will drive up sales. "The A380 is a real 'passenger magnet' - they are operating today at load factors above 80%. When the upturn comes these characteristics will be magnified - and the operators that don't have A380s yet are watching very closely," he says.

Aviation d'affaires: Bombardier maintient sa première place

(Montréal) Bombardier est toujours le chef de file du marché des avions d'affaires, même si ses livraisons ont piqué du nez en 2009.

La raison, c'est que ses principaux concurrents, Gulfstream et Cessna, ont connu une année encore plus difficile.
Selon des données rendues publiques hier par la General Aviation Manufacturers Association, l'ensemble des avionneurs ont livré seulement 870 biréacteurs d'affaires en 2009, comparativement à 1313 l'année précédente. C'est une glissade de 33,7%.
Pour Bombardier, on parle d'une diminution de 30% du nombre d'appareils livrés, mais de seulement de 22,6% si on considère la valeur de ces appareils. C'est que l'avionneur québécois a livré pratiquement le même nombre de Global Express et de Global 5000 en 2008 et 2009, des appareils luxueux qui rapportent respectivement 50 millions US et 39 millions US. Bombardier a livré beaucoup moins de plus petits appareils, comme le Learjet 60, un appareil de près de 13 millions US.

Bombardier a ainsi engrangé près de 4,9 milliards US en 2009, comparativement à 6,3 milliards US en 2008.
Son plus proche concurrent, Gulfstream, a livré 94 appareils en 2009, d'une valeur de plus de 3,9 milliards US. En valeur, il s'agit d'une baisse de 28% par rapport à l'année précédente.
Gulfstream, filiale de General Dynamics, a vécu une véritable hécatombe en ce qui concerne les plus petits appareils: elle avait livré 68 Gulfsream 150 et 200 en 2008, elle n'en a livré que 19 en 2009.
Pour Cessna, l'année 2009 a été particulièrement douloureuse: une dégringolade de 43% du nombre d'appareils livrés et de 46% de la valeur des livraisons.
Cette année aurait été encore plus dramatique si, il y a quelques années, Cessna n'avait pas lancé le Citation Mustang, un biréacteur très léger propulsé par des moteurs de Pratt&Whitney Canada (P&WC). Cessna, filiale de Textron, en avait livré 101 en 2008 et 125 en 2009.
L'avionneur européen Dassault Falcon a connu une bien meilleure année, avec une augmentation des livraisons de 6,9%.
La valeur de ces livraisons a grimpé de 19,2% pour atteindre 3 milliards US. C'est le tout nouveau Falcon 7X, un appareil de 40 millions US, qui lui a permis de progresser à ce point.
Le motoriste P&WC aime particulièrement cet appareil: il comporte trois moteurs plutôt que deux.
Hawker Beechcraft a pu compter sur un tout nouvel appareil, le Hawker 4000, un avion de 20 millions US, pour limiter les dégâts. L'avionneur de Wichita en avait livré six en 2008, et 20 en 2009. En dépit de cet apport, ses livraisons ont diminué de 37,2% quant au nombre d'appareils et de 19,5% quant à la valeur, pour atteindre près de 2 milliards US.
De son côté, Embraer a continué de progresser sur le marché de l'aviation d'affaires. Il y a quelques années, l'avionneur brésilien était pratiquement absent.
En 2008, l'entreprise a livré 38 appareils, pour une valeur totale de 921 millions US. En 2009, Embraer est passé aux choses sérieuses avec la livraison de 122 appareils, d'une valeur de 1,1 milliard US.
Ce bond est surtout dû à un appareil, le tout nouveau Phenom 100, un biréacteur très léger motorisé par P&WC. Embraer en avait livré seulement deux en 2008, et 97 en 2009.
Par ailleurs, la GAMA s'est montrée plus optimiste en ce qui concerne l'année 2010. Les dirigeants de l'association ont fait valoir hier que le trafic des biréacteurs d'affaires avait augmenté de 5% en Europe et de 6% aux États-Unis en 2009, après avoir atteint le fond du baril au début de 2009.
Ils ont également noté que les stocks d'avions usagés avaient commencé à diminuer au deuxième semestre, ce qui est de bon augure pour la vente d'avions neufs.