par Beochien Jeu 17 Mar 2011 - 23:15
Bonsoir !
Scott Hamilton, de Leeham, lui aussi met en lignes ses articles pour L'ISTAT, un peu considérée comme le salon des USA (Sans Avions)!
Bien, un long commentaire de plus à ajouter aux nombreux qui le précédent !
2 pôles ....
les valeurs résiduelles, l'année dernière tout le mond se plaignait, today , les mêmes ne se sentent plus concernés, c'est entre bof, et rien de changé , on verra quand 50% du parc installé sera de nouvelles génération, il a fallu atteindre ce chiffre pour que le vieux 737, perde 20% de sa valeur vs le 737NG !
Bien, de quoi se marrer un peu comme d'hab ...! J'épargne le basching par charité ce soir !
Avec un peu de logique on pouvait se douter quand même que l'histoire se répéterait !
Même une excuse pour l'auteur connu pour ses danses du scalp un peu compulsives : l'année dernière il y avait nettement moins de consensus chez les lessors !
Le 2nd point est que les avions vont grandir pour les mêmes usages, mais les plus petits entre 50 et 150, vont suivre la translation !
Bien, le 797 sera plus grand, aucun doute sur le sujet !
Et Airbus devra grandir aussi dans qq années (Juste mon avis)
------------- Le lien et 2 extraits de Scott Hamilton ! ----------
http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2011/03/17/reports-from-istat/#more-4311
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Lessors downplay Neo impact on residuals
Date: 16/03/2011 10:00
Source: Commercial Aviation Online
Location: Phoenix
By: Scott Hamilton
In a shift of opinion from just one year ago, executives on the lessors’ panel at the 28th annual ISTAT conference aren’t concerned about the residual value impact of the Airbus A320neo family on current generation A320s.
A year ago, lessors -as well as appraisers and financiers- were whinging about the presumed immediate and negative affect on legacy A320 values if Airbus proceeded with the Neo. It has, and now the lessor opinion has changed-and so, it appears, has that of financiers if unscientific ISTAT surveys are any indication.
Jeffrey Knittel, president, CIT Transportation Finance, recalled last year’s ISTAT conference surveys and the negative reactions before asking for a show of hands among lessors and bankers at this year’s event. Only a handful of these groups indicated they still had concerns.
Steve Townend, deputy MD and chief commercial officer for BOC Aviation and a member of Knittle’s ISTAT panel, noted that the first Neos “won’t replace aircraft of today, they will replace the MD80s and 757s and 20-year old 737s and A320s.”
GECAS CEO Norman Liu, another panelist, said, “You can’t say it will have zero impact on residuals, but it’s six years away. By 2027 you might get parity point” on deliveries of the Neo to the current A320s. “That’s when you will have residual affect.”
The third panelist, Steven Udvar-Hazy, cautioned appraisers.
“I hope the appraisal community doesn’t overreact to Neo. It’s five years away and in meantime a lot more current generations will be built and will have a higher proportion of the installed base,” he commented. ” It will take another three to four years where Neo will even be 10% of installed fleet. The impact will be a very slow progression. A lot of Neos will be for growth, not replacement.”
-------- ET --------
It will be 2026 or 2027 before the A320neo will negatively impact values of the A320 Legacy aircraft, a company sales official told the ISTAT conference 14 March.
Andy Shankland, Airbus, VP marketing, said, “We can’t really predict the future but we can look at the past.” Citing Ascend and Avitas value databases, Shankland looked at 737 Classic compared with the Next Generation and noted that Classics lost about 20% of value only after deliveries of the Next Generation equaled 50% of the Classic installed base.
There were “large differences between the Classic and the Next Generation,” Shankland said, noting that there is 95% commonality between the NEO and the Legacy aircraft .
At the anticipated orders and production rate for the NEO, Shankland thinks it will be 2026-27 before NEO will negatively impact Legacy values.
Airbus projects sales of 4,000 NEOs. It also believes sales of the Legacy and NEO will continue for 42 years after the 1988 entry nto service.
The NEO is projected to save airlines $1 million per aircraft annually in fuel reduction.
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