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par Beochien Sam 22 Mar 2014 - 20:48QQ chose que j'avais vu venir depuis 15 jours et que Airinsight reprend !
Signalé il y a qq temps à nos traders au passage .... et c'est maintenant un peu tard pour se positionner .... pour les autres
Si les Russes suspendent les livraisons en Titanium, lingots, produits finis, où semi finis, que vont faire Airbus et Boeing ... et peut être Bombardier !
Grande question !
Ernest Arvaï y répond, partiellement au moins !
Sans Titane Russe, plus d'avions occidentaux produits, pour un bout de temps en gros ...
Kan-Ban oblige !
Heureusement, les avions Russes, ont aussi besoin de techno occidentales ...
Et les Russes, ils ont besoin des qq cdes d'avions occidentaux en cours pour prospérer dans leurs transports ...
Mais, 15-20 (Petits) avions russes par mois en production, contre 100 ++ entre A et B, sans compter les autres, comme Bombardier, hum, qui tiendra le plus longtemps, si le conflit et les sanctions dérivent méchamment sur ce sujet, inévitablement gagnant pour les Russes ....
J'ajoute, pour ce secteur (Aero) du moins, pour le reste, c'est plus complexe !
------------------
http://airinsight.com/2014/03/21/editorial-there-are-no-winners-when-economic-sanctions-are-imposed/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Airinsight+%28AirInsight%29
Des extraits !
The current political tensions in the Ukraine have resulted in economic sanctions imposed by the US and its western allies on Russia. We have no interest in politics, but when political actions impact the industry, it hits our radar screen. The aerospace industry is global, and just like dropping a pebble into a pond, the impact will ripple to the other side. Here, those ripples could have major impacts.
First, some basic facts. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of titanium to the aerospace industry. Titanium is a vital component to both civil and defense programs, and aerospace manufacturers around the world, including Airbus and Boeing, rely on titanium from Russia.
Boeing and VSMPO, the Russian titanium producer, even have a joint venture founded in 2007 to manufacture parts for the 787 Dreamliner, as highlighted here. Airbus recently extended its 20 year partnership, as shown here. Clearly, Russia is an important raw material supplier to the industry, with Boeing alone expected to purchase $27 billion in titanium from Russia over the next 30 years.
What would happen if Russia cut off the supply of titanium due to sanctions? Would Airbus and Boeing be able to maintain production for long, given the proclivities in the industry for “just in time” inventories? Forget about the production increases, meeting today’s capacity could quickly become an issue.
et ..........
The 737, 747-8, 777, and 787 at Boeing all utilize Russian titanium. There are numerous Russian orders for aircraft from Aeroflot, S7, and Volga-Dneper that could be impacted by sanctions in the near term.
The A320, A330, A350 and A380 also use Russian titanium and have numerous Russian orders from Aeroflot, Transaero and others that could be impacted by sanctions in the near term.
Signalé il y a qq temps à nos traders au passage .... et c'est maintenant un peu tard pour se positionner .... pour les autres
Si les Russes suspendent les livraisons en Titanium, lingots, produits finis, où semi finis, que vont faire Airbus et Boeing ... et peut être Bombardier !
Grande question !
Ernest Arvaï y répond, partiellement au moins !
Sans Titane Russe, plus d'avions occidentaux produits, pour un bout de temps en gros ...
Kan-Ban oblige !
Heureusement, les avions Russes, ont aussi besoin de techno occidentales ...
Et les Russes, ils ont besoin des qq cdes d'avions occidentaux en cours pour prospérer dans leurs transports ...
Mais, 15-20 (Petits) avions russes par mois en production, contre 100 ++ entre A et B, sans compter les autres, comme Bombardier, hum, qui tiendra le plus longtemps, si le conflit et les sanctions dérivent méchamment sur ce sujet, inévitablement gagnant pour les Russes ....
J'ajoute, pour ce secteur (Aero) du moins, pour le reste, c'est plus complexe !
------------------
http://airinsight.com/2014/03/21/editorial-there-are-no-winners-when-economic-sanctions-are-imposed/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Airinsight+%28AirInsight%29
Des extraits !
The current political tensions in the Ukraine have resulted in economic sanctions imposed by the US and its western allies on Russia. We have no interest in politics, but when political actions impact the industry, it hits our radar screen. The aerospace industry is global, and just like dropping a pebble into a pond, the impact will ripple to the other side. Here, those ripples could have major impacts.
First, some basic facts. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of titanium to the aerospace industry. Titanium is a vital component to both civil and defense programs, and aerospace manufacturers around the world, including Airbus and Boeing, rely on titanium from Russia.
Boeing and VSMPO, the Russian titanium producer, even have a joint venture founded in 2007 to manufacture parts for the 787 Dreamliner, as highlighted here. Airbus recently extended its 20 year partnership, as shown here. Clearly, Russia is an important raw material supplier to the industry, with Boeing alone expected to purchase $27 billion in titanium from Russia over the next 30 years.
What would happen if Russia cut off the supply of titanium due to sanctions? Would Airbus and Boeing be able to maintain production for long, given the proclivities in the industry for “just in time” inventories? Forget about the production increases, meeting today’s capacity could quickly become an issue.
et ..........
The 737, 747-8, 777, and 787 at Boeing all utilize Russian titanium. There are numerous Russian orders for aircraft from Aeroflot, S7, and Volga-Dneper that could be impacted by sanctions in the near term.
The A320, A330, A350 and A380 also use Russian titanium and have numerous Russian orders from Aeroflot, Transaero and others that could be impacted by sanctions in the near term.
