777-8 et 777-9

Split widebody order by United casts new light on 777 replacement
By Lori Ranson

United Airlines' decision to split its long-awaited widebody order evenly between the Airbus A350 XWB and the Boeing 787 has intensified pressure on the US airframer to get on with plans for either a refresh of the 777 or a new clean-sheet design.

Early on, Boeing attempted to offer United the 747-8I and the 777-300ER, says Scott Hamilton, an aviation industry consultant with Seattle-based Leeham. But United characterised the 777 as "old technology", he adds.

That is an ironic comment from the launch customer of the 777, who as FTN Equity Capital analyst Michael Derchin points out, has traditionally been a Boeing widebody customer. "Airbus's A350 order is a coup for them, and may suggest that Boeing will speed up its 777NG development plans to be competitive with Airbus in the market segment," he says.


If the deal does trigger Boeing to hasten a decision on the 777, United appears to have leeway to consider a new product offering from Boeing.

"This order is for 50 firm aircraft," says United chief financial officer Kathryn Mikells. "Our entire international widebody fleet is in excess of 90 aircraft. If a new aircraft type becomes available in our widebody replacement programme, there is nothing that prevents us from looking at that at the time it becomes available. We have a lot of flexibility through this order to manage the widebody replacement throughout that longer cycle."

One sale alone is not likely to have a material impact on Boeing's 777 plans, says Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Ron Epstein, who highlights his company's long-held belief that Boeing would focus on a 777 revamp before considering future narrowbody developments.

Still, if Airbus succeeds in delivering its promised operating specifications for the A350, Epstein says the manufacturer would ultimately offer a better aircraft than the 777, and "Boeing would have to do something".

One benefit of the current down cycle to Boeing is it allows the manufacturer some breathing space on further widebody developments. Epstein does not forecast a large amount of widebody activity in 2010, and in one to two years, Boeing should have a better feel for 787 technology and customer behaviour, says Epstein.

Boeing does not currently appear to have a definitive timeframe for any 777 decision, with the airframer saying: "No commitments have been made at this time." It adds: "Between now and the end of the next decade, there are many attractive near- and long-term options for continuous improvement."

Boeing says those options include drag and maintenance improvements, new engines, a new wing or an all-new aircraft. As the airframer studies its options, "on a long-term basis, a 15%-20% improvement is in the ballpark of what Boeing would seek".

In addition to studying the long term future of the 777, Boeing is working to implement a host of incremental changes to the long-range widebody, as well as evaluating an extended wingspan.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh says that extending the wing of the 777 is among a set of incremental improvements being shown to customers.

Company sources familiar with the 777 Extended Wing (777EW) say that Boeing is hoping to offer the increased span for entry into service in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The larger wingspan is aimed at increasing the aerodynamic efficiency of the aircraft, and is designed as a tactical move to head off the 350-seat Airbus A350-1000 due for entry into service in 2015.

The size of the increase was not specified, though one source says, "take it as a given that the 777 wing can grow".

While not specifying a potential time period for a 777EW's introduction, Albaugh says it is a question that depends "on what our customers want and what they want to pay for, we'll do those things, but we're in discussions not just about what we might do as major upgrade for the 777, but incremental things we can do between now and the end of this decade".



Jon Ostrower



Albaugh says that Lars Anderson, who is directing the 777 advanced product development team, is taking into account both the incremental 777 upgrades as well as more significant changes that may come over the next decade.

Among the major 777 changes being explored are a new composite wing and new engine, or even a clean sheet design for an entirely new aircraft that sits between the 787 and 747-8.

"They really do have to be looked at collectively. If you're an airline and you saw a new airplane coming, would you want a small fleet of different airplanes than you're flying today?" asks Albaugh.

In the near term, Albaugh says the company is also rolling out further incremental improvements to the existing family of 777 aircraft.

Boeing will introduce a 5,000lb increase in the maximum zero fuel weight of the 777-300ER, providing an equivalent payload increase of 20 to 25 passengers.

Starting later this year, the General Electric GE90-115B1 engines that power the 777-300ER will increase thrust by 1%-2.5% as part of an Enhanced Thrust Management (ETM) package designed to increase take off weight at higher-altitude airports, and will be available in both new production and as a retrofit.

Boeing is advancing toward a mid-decade series of incremental improvements to the 777 aircraft - dubbed the 777+ - which include the possibility of increasing the wingspan of the long-range twin, said vice-president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes business development Nicole Piasecki.
Among other possible improvements are flightdeck upgrades, similar to those on the 747-8, adding additional avionics capability for the crew without changing the display area.
Further, Boeing and General Electric are exploring ways to introduce GEnx engine technology into the GE90, which is exclusively available on the 777 family.

PARIS -- The show has been a buzz with talk of Boeing's next move on the 737, yet the airframer has provided some clarity on near term and longer term 777 improvements, including the 777+ and conceptual studies for aircraft it has dubbed the 777-8X and 777-9X, intended as a possible response to the updated A350-1000 now available in 2017.

"We're taking the -1000 very seriously," said Albaugh, "We're going to put our assessment on when that plane can be available. We'll take a hard look on how long it will take them to go up in rate. Whether or not that is incremental improvements or a significant derivative [for the 777] it remains to be seen."

In the near-term, said Boeing vice president of business development, Nicole Piasecki, the airframer is evaluating a series of incremental updates dubbed the 777+, which include extending the wingspan of the 777, along with adding avionics enhancements, similar to that of the 747-8, providing additional capability to the flight deck for the crew without changing the display area.

The 777+ marks a return to the forefront of the extended wingspan option after being shelved in 2010 as the company explored other options for the long-range widebody. At the time of its evaluation, the extended wing could have been available as early as the fourth quarter of 2012, said company sources.

Industry and company sources also indicate structural modifications are being evaluated to more comfortably accommodate 10-abreast seating in economy class.

Further, Boeing and General Electric are exploring ways to introduce GEnx engine technology into the GE90, which is exclusively available on the 777 family.

"What we'll do on the 777 is continue to improve airplane we have," said James Albaugh, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, "But we also have some major upgrades we could do in the event that we have to respond to a move by the competition."

In the longer term, Boeing vice president of sales Marlin Dailey, says longer-term improvements to the 777 including examining the "up-gauging" or stretching the fuselage, though the conceptual 777-9X and 777-8X, available early next decade.

Industry sources said the -9X would be an additional stretch to the 777-300ER, while the -8X would be an shrink of the 365-seat jet.

Conceptually the 777-8X and -9X would allow Boeing to span the products between the conceptual 290 to 330-seat 787-10X and 467-seat 747-8.

The “godfather of leasing,” Steven Udvar-Hazy, the CEO of Air Lease Corp., weighed in on the 737RE and the prospective improvements to the 777 during ALC’s earning’s call. And when Hazy speaks, the industry listens.

Hazy, who favored a new airplane in the 737 class, wasn’t too happy about the 737RE decision and thinks Boeing has a ways to go on developing this aircraft. We’ll have more about this in a separate post.

As for the prospective improvements of the 777, Hazy had this to say:



We have been spending a lot of time with Boeing since the Paris Air Show. We have looked at different scenarios on an improved version of the 777. There are multiple variations. Some involve minor changes, some involve completely new wings, some involve aerodynamic improvements, some involve a brand new engine which GE would have to develop as a follow-on to the GE90.

Some of those options are extremely costly in terms of development cost and would involve significant redesign of the airplane. Others are more what I call band aid solutions to be competitive with the A350-1000. But everything is still on the table and I don’t think Boeing is going to come to any quick decisions on any of those programs because they involve tremendous amount of resources both financial and engineering design resources and I think, first Boeing have to grips with getting 787 flying. I think that’s really the number one goal right now of the company. (Transcript excerpt via Aspire Aviation. See Aspire’s new post on the 747-8.)


Although Hazy’s remarks quickly received press attention, these are possibilities we’ve written about as far back as the Farnborough Air Show in 2010.

We also briefly wrote about 777 enhancements as part of Boeing’s Paris Air Show briefing this year, in which Nicole Piaskeci, VP of Business Development and Strategic Integration, said Boeing was looking at enhancements to the GE90-115B engine and to the wing span of the 777.

One of the reasons Boeing began to lean toward a re-engined 737, even before the Paris Air Show, and by July 18 the odds had shifted from a New Small Airplane to the 737RE. In a post we had on that date, we detailed one of the reasons was a shifting emphasis to twin-aisle development of the 787-10 and enhancements to the 777. Although Boeing made a last-ditch effort to launch the NSA with American Airlines, instead Boeing decided to offer the 737RE to American.

With this as background, we recap the prospective 777 upgrades:

• The less expensive route is tweaking the GE90-115B engine and reworking the wingspan, as Piasecki noted during the Paris Air Show press briefings;
  
• Routine aerodynamic improvements and weight reduction, with increasing use of composites throughout the airplane;
  
• More expensive is the prospect of an entirely new engine based on the GEnx (which itself is based on GE90 architecture); and an entirely new wing. We;re talking billions of dollars here in R&B (though far less than a new airplane), going down the path of the 747-8;
  
• The prospect of reskinning the airplane seems less likely;
  
• Development of a 777-8 (dubbed the 8X at this stage) to replace the 777-200 and of the 777-9 (dubbed the 9X) for the 777-300 replacement; both are merely derivatives; and
  
• The prospect of an entirely new airplane also seems unlikely, given the program overhangs of the 787 and 747-8 relating to the production issues still to come for the 787 ramp up and the negative cash flow of both programs.
  

With Airbus putting off the A350-1000 for two years, and a challenge remaining for the timely entry-into-service for the launch -900 model, Boeing feels it has more time to decide what to do on the 777. At the Farnborough Air Show, Boeing indicated an answer for the 777 by the end of 2010 (as it had with the 737 future). As with the 737, the answer for the 777 keeps sliding to the right. Given the rescheduling of the -1000, we don’t expect Boeing to decide the 777′s future this year.

To power the new jet, Boeing and General Electric look to be investigating a scaled down GE90, part of its GE9X study, evaluating a 325cm (128in) diameter fan with a lower 99,500lb thrust, a reduction of 15,500lbs from the 343cm (135in) GE90-115B that powers the 777-300ER today. The engine would draw on technology introduced on the GEnx platforms, as well as implement ceramic matrix composites for the turbine section.

With a late-decade service entry, the larger wing and its increased lift to drag ratio, coupled with the a 10% improvement in specific fuel consumption for the GE9X engine, along with material improvements across the aircraft would aim to improve fuel burn by 15% on a per seat basis.

Boeing is currently studying the entry into service timing of its widebody models to follow the 787-9 in late 2013. In response to the A350-900, Boeing is evaluating the pacing of a larger 787-10X stretch and the 777-8X/9X.

As part of the studies, Boeing is examining optimizing the fuselage around the new larger wing, looking at both a fuselage stretch and a shrink of the 777-300ER. One conceptualization of the -9X would be an additional stretch to the 777-300ER, while the -8X would be a shrink of the 365-seat jet, The 777-8X and -9X would allow Boeing to span the products between the proposed 330-seat 787-10X and 467-seat 747-8.

Inside the cabin, company sources say reshaped fuselage frames will allow a more-comfortable 10-abreast seating in economy class, growing the aircraft's passenger capacity from a nominal 365 to 388 seats for the baseline 777-9X. The frames would be carved closer to the fuselage skin, adding about 10cm (4in) to the cabin width, but widened to maintain their strength.

Further, as part of the study Boeing would offer a new 787-style interior, with LED lighting and larger overhead bins to the type, as it has done with its 747-8 and 737 families. In the cockpit, Boeing is looking at flight deck and avionics updates for future air traffic management systems, as well as systems architecture upgrades that would bring parts of the 787's ARINC 629 standard and increased electrical usage to the 777.

"There are technologies that we're learning and have created and learned from on the 787 and 747," says Loftis, "First of all, do they have a place on the airplane? Or don't they. We're not going to change technology for the sake of changing technology, it has to create value for this airplane."

aeroduO5 a écrit:
Si B fait un 777-9X, il tuera son 747-8I: pa strès judicieux vu l'investissement que cet avion a demandé.

aeroduO5 a écrit: Il y aura embouteillage chez B vers les 320 pax avec le 787-10 et un éventuel 777-8X.

aeroduO5 a écrit:
Pendant ce temps A se balladera avec son A350-900 qui aura le range du 777-8X pour un cout au siège inférieur au 787-10.

aeroduO5 a écrit:Après cela B pourra toujours faire un 777 plus long et ayant un range un peu inférieur (14000kms).

Admin a écrit:Salut Paul
La différence d'OEW entre le 787-10 et l'A350-900 risque d'être faible, et dans ce cas, je ne vois pas comment l'A350-900 peut être moins efficace que l'A350-900 même pour les routes "courtes"

aeroduO5 a écrit:
Pendant ce temps A se balladera avec son A350-900 qui aura le range du 777-8X pour un cout au siège inférieur au 787-10.

Vraiment pas d'accord, le 787-10 sera imbattable sur vol de 6000 nm et moins.

Selon moi, Boeing n'a besoin que de 5-8% d'amélioration de conso pour battre l'A350-1000 avec un 777NG et Boeing prévoit une amélioration de 10-15%. Le 777 a le diamètre de fuselage idéal, optimisé pour 9 de front avec possibilité de faire du 10 de front assez confortable, chose que ne pourra faire l'A350.

Le 747-8 est avant tout un cargo, Boeing a fait la version passager en "bonus".