Bombardier C-Séries (partie 1)

Deliveries of 138-seat, single-class CS300s to Republic's new Frontier Airlines subsidiary will begin in the second quarter of 2015, about a year-and-a-half after the first CSeries, a CS100, is due to enter service in late 2013. For Airbus and Boeing, the Republic contest "was the scary point in that it was the first time when they had real competition. They put their products against the CSeries. It was a good competition and they lost," says Avitas senior vice-president of consultancy Adam Pilarski.
"To me, this was serious. I think it was a wake-up call and everything to do with [Airbus and Boeing's current] re-engining studies comes from that," adds Pilarski, who felt compelled to express a similar opinion to Airbus's chief salesman John Leahy in March at the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) conference in Orlando. "At ISTAT, I got annoyed with John Leahy, who called Bombardier 'snowmobile producers', and I said, 'look, John, there was a real competition and you lost'."
It is little wonder, then, that Bombardier is heading to the Farnborough air show with a new spring its step, or as Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski describes it, with "wind in their sales".
However, all eyes are now on the Canadian airframer to maintain that excitement, and produce more orders in the near term. "I think Farnborough will be important for them. That's not to say that if no orders are announced, it will collapse the programme, but if they don't, they'll have to announce something by the end of the summer to keep up that momentum we're talking about," says Jaworowski.

Even Teal Group's vice-president analysis Richard Aboulafia, who has traditionally taken a more sceptical view of the CSeries, particularly the 110-seat CS100, concedes that "a few more Republic-type orders, where there is a competition and where you can't write it off as 'Lufthansa being too clever by half with its fleet planning'", would cement Bombardier's status as a "major league" jetliner producer.

Detailed design phase for the CSeries will be completed early in 2011, after which Bombardier will move into the build phase for parts. The manufacturer plans to fly the CSeries in 2012 and deliver the first aircraft the following year. By the time first delivery takes place, however, the airframer will have already been testing the CSeries in the virtual world for about three years

149-seat CS300, dismissing reports to the contrary as speculation. But Aboulafia and other analysts believes the Canadian airframer must move into the 150-plus seat category, particularly if its arch-rival Embraer moves to re-engine its E-Jets family, of which the largest member - the 195 - is capable of seating 122 passengers at maximum density.
"If Embraer re-engines then that product looks really a bit like a CS100 killer," says Aboulafia. "The centre of the market is increasingly gravitating towards the A320 and 737-800. So what's the point of [Bombardier] going after the diminishing part of the market when, for a relatively modest investment, you can go after a much greater segment, 150 seats," he says, adding that the CS300 - and not the CS100 - should be Bombardier's primary CSeries model. A 150-seater would "complement" this primary model, he says.

Comparing "apples-to-apples" in seat capacity @ 32" pitch, CS300 with its 135 seats is pitched next to H20QR, with +/– ditto 135 seats. Yet, H20QR with its exceptionally generous OHSC will only need 3 ULD for luggage, freeing 4 ULD (each of 127 ft³) underfloor, which added to the bulk volume of 208 ft³are equivalent to 40 +17 = + 57 full-fare-paying YC passengers in the "underfloor cabin" (revenue conversion ratio : r = 12,6 cuft freight = (net) 1 YC ff) or total 192 pax for H20QR vs only 135 pax for its direct contender, if we give CS300 zero credit for freight. [Nota Bene : we leave it up to Bombardier to showcase CS300 cargo capability ?? ] Take r = 8.3 (assume better freight market prices ?) and we get = + 716 ft³/flight = + 86 YCff "virtual pax" per flight, total 221 pax or + 64 % vs CS300. Now, dilute from average CF (79 % ?) or average ticket price (60 % vs YCff ?) andH20QRlitterally"takes off" vs CS300 !!



Also, vs the bulk-loaded CS300 with twice as high a pax density in the aisle, the twin aisle H20QR with CLS turns around quicker on ground, completing 7 legs/24h when CS300 makes only 6, or 8 legs/24h, when CS300 makes only 7 ("active" period/24h, A-C checks + night stop-overs excluded), a "cherry-on-the-top" for H20QR. Nota Bene : for the extra rotation at the end of the day, all hourly related costs are +/– free-of-charge for H20QR vs the slower-rotating CS300, so we only need to pay up for the extra fuel + cyclic costs. A similar comparison goes for H19QR vs CS100.

Summary/Conclusion

Versatile passe-partout money-spinners with full fleet commonality vs A320 Series, H19QR & H20QR are proven, commonly deployed types : same flight crews, same maintenance organisation, same training etc as for A320 Series aircraft. Small, yet true "wide narrow-body" SMR Feeders, theTwin Aisle H19QR & H20QR work-horses are perfect for thinner SMR feeder routes, generating greater revenue from cargo traffic as well as from passenger traffic, boosting yields/24h vs CS Series.

FARNBOROUGH: Qatar blames P&W for CSeries impasse

By Max Kingsley-Jones

An ongoing dispute between Qatar Airways and CSeries engine supplier
Pratt & Whitney over maintenance cost guarantees is threatening to
derail Bombardier's chances of landing the Gulf carrier as a launch
customer for its new twinjet.
The Doha-based airline has been in long-running talks with Bombardier
and P&W about a potential order for the PW1000G geared turbofan
powered twinjet.
At a press conference to announce a deal for two Bombardier Global
5000 business jets for Qatar's executive arm, chief executive Akbar Al
Baker quashed pre-show speculation that a Qatar Airways CSeries order
could materialise this week.
"We would have been happy to do something at the show, but
unfortunately there are some issues, not relating to Bombardier, that
have not been resolved, but we hope they will be soon."
Although Al Baker was reluctant to be specific about the issue, he
added: "We are having discussions with the engine manufacturer Pratt
& Whitney, through Bombardier, and I hope we can conclude these
amicably."
Flight Daily News understands the issue centres around the
engine maker's maintenance cost guarantees to the airline, vis-à-vis its
brochure claims for the new turbofan.
Since launching the GTF, P&W has been extremely bullish about its
maintenance costs on the basis of its cooler-running hot section, which
has fewer parts. P&W boasts 20% maintenance cost savings over
current engines - claims that a competitor describes as outrageous.
P&W declines to comment on the specifics of the negotiation
difficulties, saying that Bombardier and Qatar Airways "are actively
engaged in finding a mutually acceptable way forward".

Trying to rip open the planet's most established - and entrenched - duopoly is not for the faint of heart.

Three years before its entry into service the world media is trumpeting the 2010 Farnborough Air Show as a failure for Bombardier without an order for the CSeries, though at this point in the new aircraft's development is a rapidly growing backlog essential?

The shopping spree witnessed at Farnborough was almost entirely for aircraft that are currently in production, with near term delivery dates attached. In part, Farnborough represented a show of pent up demand after 18 months of cautious buying.

The only aircraft not currently in service to receive firm orders at the show were 3 787-8s from Royal Jordanian and 30 Sukhoi Superjets from Kartika Airlines. Farnborough was about the aircraft of today, not the ones of tomorrow.

Let us for a moment put things into a bit of perspective: According to the Flight archive, in March 1986, two full years before its entry into service in 1988, the A320 had 100 firm orders and 157 options in the backlog.

This stands in comparison to CSeries orders three years before entry into service at 90 firm and 90 options.

Would an order represent a major boost of confidence for the program? Absolutely. Orders are the stamp of approval for the product, validating its backing by existing customers, as well as investors.

Yet what Bombardier needed, and what it got this week, were orders for its existing commercial and business jet portfolio. From a development perspective, deposits for CSeries are not significant enough to pay for the program moving forward, what Bombardier requires is healthy cash flow through its mature aircraft programs to help pay for CSeries development.

Most importantly, Bombardier is no longer competing with today's A319 and 737-700. The product has successfully forced Boeing and Airbus to defend its territory. The CSeries on paper is a step change beyond both, but the CSeries is now shadowboxing three products that may or may not come into existence before the end of the year.

By all appearances, the big four, Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer, are playing a game of chicken, seeing who will blink first and announce their plans for their respective narrowbody products.

Airbus is believed to be pacing this decision for the industry, with one official on the propulsion side of the business telling FlightBlogger that Bombardier would prefer to give more clarity to its technical plans after Airbus's re-engining details emerge, rather than the other way around.

Boeing's company line remains firm, with the airfamer saying it will be "market driven" in it's decision, at least indirectly implying that its customers are in a holding pattern for what will be offered by both airframers as the market has yet to make a decision. At this point, Boeing is hinting at a single engine choice for whatever it does next. As of April, Boeing had tested only a 737 with a CFM Leap-X engine configuration in the wind tunnel, says an engineer close to the development.

For Embraer, which was mum on its plans for the future, hinted late in the week to Brazilian newspaper Valor Economico that it would make a decision on a clean-sheet 130-seat jet by year's end. For Bombardier, its intentions are clear, but the technical details behind its new aircraft remain elusive. Industry officials say that even the geometry of the aircraft's composite wing has been a closely held secret by the Canadian airframer.

With a lack of clarity being the only constant across the world's leading airframer, how can customers possibly make a decision about which horse to back?

Though as another mid-summer show draws to a close, what Boeing, Airbus and Embraer decide to do over the next five months may decide the course of commercial aircraft development for the next decade.

...
Il reste encore beaucoup de temps à Bombardier pour attirer d’autres clients, affirme Guy C. Hachey, président et chef de l'exploitation, Bombardier Aéronautique. Au 31 juillet, il restait 42 mois avant l’entrée en service du CS100 et 54 mois avant celle du CS300.

«À pareille échéance, la CSeries se démarque avantageusement lorsqu’on compare son carnet de commandes à celui d’autres appareils que nous avons produits, explique M. Hachey. Il est certains que nous aimerions en avoir plus, mais nous ne sommes pas inquiets. L’histoire nous montre que les clients sont plus actifs entre 30 et 24 mois avant l’entrée en livraison.»

Actuellement, Bombardier a cinq clients dans sa ligne de mire situés en Asie, au Moyen-Orient et en Europe. «Nous espérons signer une ou deux ententes, peut-être même trois, d’ici les prochains mois».

China’s Changjiang Leasing is negotiating with Bombardier over a possible order for CSeries airliners, but is reluctant to commit itself before it can be certain of the program schedule.
After the experience of the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787 programs, it is difficult to place great trust in a manufacturer’s promised delivery dates, says Ren Weidong, executive vice president of the Hainan Airlines Group lessor.
“We are discussing it [a CSeries order] now,” he says. “The problem is when they can deliver the plane.”
Ren believes he has reasons to be skeptical. “I was the project manager for the 787 at Hainan Airlines.”
A Bombardier executive says airlines’ and lessors’ lack of trust in manufacturers’ development schedules has become a problem in selling the aircraft. The first delivery of a CSeries aircraft is due in 2013.
A CSeries order would be part of the expansion program at Changjiang, which Ren says will double its portfolio to 200 aircraft over the coming five to six years.
The company is expanding now by extending lease finance on aircraft that airlines have ordered, rather than by ordering itself. Available delivery slots generally are too far away, presenting too much risk for the lessor, Ren said on the sidelines of a conference, the Commercial Aircraft Forum in Shanghai.
There is no shortage of airlines seeking such financing, he added. Changjiang is itself financed mainly by bank loans.
Expansion will also include spreading Changjiang’s business beyond China. “We are talking to some foreign airlines now in Asia and elsewhere.”.
Ren sees narrowbody aircraft accounting for a rising proportion of the fleets of Chinese airlines as routes fragment and the system comes to look more like that of the United States.

• The CS program is taking 63 months for product development. This compares to Boeing's planned 48 months for the 787.
  
• They created the CIASTA program to test every part going in to the CS.
  
• The new wing is being tested in Belfast and passed the 150% stress test without breaking.
  
• The first fuselage arrived from China last year and is well into its lifecycle testing.