Bonjour !
Une énorme com de Aspire reçue chez moi ! Belle compil pour le 748 !
Pas sûr de la stabilité des liens !
A lire impérativement ! Article de référence !
Je copie tout, bon courage ! Et bonne lecture, rien à jeter !
Initial 747-8 woes will not affect aircraft’s business case
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Posted: 18 Oct 2011 06:30 AM PDTIt was a sigh of relief when Luxemburg-based freight carrier Cargolux
International Airlines finally took the first delivery of the 747-8F
freighter, the cargo version of Chicago-based airframer Boeing’s
revamped iconic jumbo jet, on 12th October and its second example the
following day, after resolving a month-long dispute centred on the
performance shortfall in the specific fuel consumption (SFC) of the
aircraft’s General Electric (GE) GEnx-2B engines. This also put an end
to the latest string of setbacks suffered by the beleaguered aircraft
programme, which is already in a forward-loss position and whose entry
into service (EIS) date was already delayed by 2 years as a result of
diluted engineering resources and design changes.
“I am pleased that we have reached agreement on the contractual
issues. The 747-8F Freighter will be a driver of profitable growth for
Cargolux,” Cargolux president and chief executive Frank Reimen said.
“This is a great day for The Boeing Company and for Cargolux. The 747-8F Freighter is truly the queen of the skies for the21st century and will continue the promise of the 747 for decades to come,”
Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) president and chief executive Jim Albaugh commented.
Notwithstanding the relief brought by the first delivery, the journey
of the latest elongated version of the 747 aircraft family has in fact
been a bumpy, if not a tumultuous, one. In its flight test programme
which more than doubled the initially anticipated 1,600 hours required
to obtain US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification, Boeing
discovered a buffeting issue when its double-slotted in-board flaps
were set in the 30 degrees position which eventually prompted the
redesign of the 747-8′s main landing gear doors, in addition to a 2.3 Hz
or plus or minus 2.5 cm (1 inch) flutter issue in the aircraft’s
outboard aileron, which was ultimately solved by the ingenious invention
of the outboard aileron modal suppression (OAMS) system by utilising
the aircraft’s roll-axis fly-by-wire system.
From a financial perspective, the picture is not any prettier. The
aircraft programme took in a US$1 billion charge in October 2009
following a fresh delay (“Boeing faces yet another setback with US$1 bln 747-8 programme charge,”
6th, Oct, 09) and is a forward-loss position. The earlier challenging
market conditions when the air cargo market was in a tailspin with more
than 20% slumps in monthly traffic figures painted a bleak picture for
Boeing’s offering in the niche very large airplane (VLA) market.
Worse yet, after an extraordinarily robust 2010 recovery in the air
cargo market as businesses replenished their inventories and the
financial market expected to have a faster global economic recovery in
the remainder of 2011 than the stagnant economic recovery in the
first-half, the world is again on the brink of entering a double-dip
recession owing to a renewed European sovereign debt crisis and the
political gridlock in Washington when the 747-8F freighter was just
about to be delivered.
Image Courtesy of Boeing
Performance shortfall
Then it came the Cargolux dispute in which the airline refused
to accept deliveries of its first 2 747-8F freighters on 19th and 21st
September and forced the world’s second-largest aircraft manufacturer to
cancel 3 days worth of celebratory events.
The dispute was centred on a 2.7% shortfall in the specific fuel
consumption (SFC) of the aircraft’s four General Electric GEnx-2B
engines.
“There was a shortfall of nearly 2.7%. We could not take an aircraft
that is under-performing,” Qatar Airways chief executive Akbar Al Baker
lamented.
“Unfortunately, the management of Cargolux did not take the action
they should have taken during the process of the aircraft acceptance. As
we sit on the board of Cargolux, we have full right to object if we
find something is not fair as far as Cargolux is concerned,” Al Baker
elaborated. Al Baker became a director of the European freight carrier
following Qatar Airways’ purchase of a 35% stake of Cargolux this June.
The Cargolux dispute had originally been thought by aerospace
analysts to involve Qatar Airways’ negotiations on compensation
regarding the Middle Eastern carrier’s 35 787 Dreamliner deliveries
which were delayed, but this contention was dismissed by Qatar Airways
chief executive Akbar Al Baker.
“It is absolutely unrelated. I cannot use Cargolux to get additional
concessions from Boeing. There is no relationship between 787 delays and
the Cargolux aircraft,” Al Baker reiterated.
Regardless of whether Qatar’s 787 was involved in the Cargolux
dispute, however, it has been known for over a year that the 747-8 has
performance shortfall issues.
For instance, according to
Aspire Aviation‘s multiple
sources at the Chicago-based airframer, the 2.7% shortfall in the
GEnx-2B engines’ specific fuel consumption (SFC) could partly be
attributed to the 2%-3% SFC shortfall in its sibling GEnx-1B engine
powering the more revolutionary mid-sized Boeing 787 Dreamliner, as
engineering resources were diverted to resolve engine fuel burn
shortfall on the more popular aircraft.
General Electric (GE) has since launched the performance improvement
package (PIP) PIP 1 and PIP 2 on the GEnx-1B engine, with PIP 1 reducing
1.4% of the SFC shortfall and PIP 2 reducing another 2.5%, thereby
enabling the GEnx-2B to be in line or slight better than its original
specific fuel consumption (SFC) target (“Challenges remain as Boeing 787 becomes reality“, 3rd, Oct, 11).
“During our testing, we noticed we needed to improve our SFC, and GE
has plans in place to ensure we meet the SFC targets on both engine
lines [the GEnx-1B on the 787 and GEnx-2B on the 747-8] through the PIP
(performance improvement package) programmes,” General Electric
spokeswoman Deborah Case acknowledged.
The performance improvement package (PIP) PIP 1 for the GEnx-2B
engines will enter into service by late 2013 and will reduce 1.6% of the
2.7% SFC shortfall. In addition,
Aspire Aviation‘s sources who
are close to the world’s largest engine manufacturer say GE may very
well be able to apply the elements of the PIP 2 on the GEnx-1B engine
onto the GEnx-2B platform, thereby recovering the remaining 1.1% fuel
burn shortfall in the engine.
Other aerospace analysts, however, are less concerned on the GEnx engine performance shortfall.
“It is easier to improve engine performance than to improve airframe
performance. Engines are intended to evolve on a continuous basis, while
airframes tend to get upgraded in large, occasional blocks,” said
Richard Aboulafia, vice president (VP) of analysis at Fairfax,
Virginia-based consulting firm Teal Group.
“Since the problem appears to now be more engine related, the odds
are very good that the plane’s performance can be improved quickly.
Given GE’s track record, it is extremely unlikely that the GEnx will not
reach its targets, and therefore it is extremely unlikely that the
747-8 will not reach its targets,” Aboulafia commented.
Meanwhile, the early-built 747-8s are understood to be 2.3 tonnes to 2.7 tonnes (5,000-6,000 lbs) overweight, Leeham News reported.
“It is misleading to say we missed our specifications. After we set
our original specification, we completely redesigned the wing, which is
significantly heavier, but more than makes up for that in increased
aerodynamic efficiency and lower fuel burn. Our flight loads survey
testing presented us opportunities to further enhance the airplane’s
performance through further weight savings as well as to improve our
payload/range capability by increasing our maximum taxi weight, maximum
take-off weight (MTOW), maximum landing weight (MLW) and maximum zero
fuel weight (MZFW). As with all our airplanes, Boeing will continue to
seek further improvements in weight throughout the life of the
programme,” Boeing was quoted as saying in the Leeham News article.
According to
Aspire Aviation‘s sources at Boeing, there were
miscalculations of flight loads on the fuselage of 747-8′s original
design in 2005, which led to structural reinforcement throughout the
entire length of the fuselage. As a result, a significant amount of
weight was added to the aircraft.
The same sources also confirmed that the redesigned 747-8 wings also
contributed to the weight growth of the aircraft, while adding that
Boeing since then has found “many significant weight-saving
opportunities” throughout the aircraft, “particularly on its wings”,
which have delivered considerably better-than-anticipated lift-to-drag
(L/D) ratio.
The early-built 747-8F freighters, those sources say, are around 8 to
9 tonnes overweight when compared to the initial design in 2005 but are
only 2.3 to 2.7 tonnes overweight when compared to the revised design
which features 787-styled super-critical wings.
Though these improvements seemed to be a little bit too late for
Atlas Air, which, citing “lengthy delays and performance
considerations”, cancelled 3 orders for early-built 747-8F freighters.
“As prudent asset managers, terminating the first three aircraft was
the right decision for our fleet, our customers and our stockholders. We
expect the remaining 747-8Fs in our order to be better-performing
aircraft than those we have terminated,” said William Flynn, president
and chief executive of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings (AAWH), parent of
Atlas Air, Polar Air Cargo and Titan Aviation Leasing.
“The 747-8Fs represent a substantial investment in the growth of our
business and are the cornerstone of our long-term fleet strategy,
reinforcing our position as the most-advanced, most-efficient and
most-reliable provider of outsourced aircraft and aviation operating
services,” Flynn emphasised.
Interestingly, Boeing’s arch-rival across the Atlantic, European
Aeronautics, Defence & Space Co. (EADS) wholly-owned subsidiary
Airbus, said in one of its presentation slides in its latest Global
Market Forecast (GMF) this September, that the European airframer
estimates a 5% performance shortfall in the 747-8I Intercontinental’s
relative cash operating cost (COC) per seat in a 405-seat, 3-class
configuration.
However,
Aspire Aviation‘s sources at Boeing caution that
the 5% figure is likely to be skewed, as cash operating cost (COC)
depends on many factors such as the stage length, seat configuration,
etc., and that it would be difficult to identify the portion of the COC
per seat shortfall for which the engine fuel burn shortfall and the
overweight account.
Direct operating cost (DOC) = cash operating cost (COC) + capital cost
Image Courtesy of Airbus
Business case unaffectedIn spite of the challenges facing the 747-8 programme during development
and flight tests, the initial woes suffered by the 747-8 is unlikely to
affect the long-term business case of the aircraft, analysts say.
“A few problems with customers at the start of a programme should
have no impact at all on the business case. Business cases are designed
around 20-30 year periods and dozens of customers. It all depends on the
aircraft’s performance, however,” Teal Group vice president (VP) of
analysis Richard Aboulafia conceded.
And the 747-8′s business case is one which
Aspire Aviation views as a sound one and better positioned than its arch-rival, the Airbus A380 superjumbo.
For instance, the 747-8 is more suitable for carriers with a
frequency-based business model, with it being able to retain the same
number of flight frequency, thereby offering more flexibility to
price-inelastic, last-minute business travellers who would otherwise fly
on flights offered by competitors and result in spilled over demand. As
these price-inelastic business travellers often pay the highest ticket
price with airlines’ discriminatory pricing, they are a lucrative source
of revenue and profit for frequency-based airlines such as Hong
Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways.
For example, the introduction of A380 flights has generally resulted
in a reduction of frequencies on numerous routes, as observed during
Singapore Airlines’ launch of a daily A380 flight to Zurich,
substituting the previous 12-weekly 777-300ER flights operated by the
Singaporean flag carrier. As economic theories state the smaller the
difference between business travellers’ preferred departure time and the
flights’ actual departure time, the bigger the chance in successfully
converting potential demand into actual demand, replacing two flights
with an A380 flight may lead to spillover demand from business
travellers to other airlines.
While the A380 has proved to be popular with passengers and both
airlines and Airbus tout that they are able to enjoy a revenue premium
by offering better services and thereby charging higher prices than
comparable flights on other aircraft,
Aspire Aviation has
learned that the Singapore Airlines Suites on SIA’s A380s are having
poor loads as global economic uncertainties dent premium demand for the
Singapore Airlines Suites whose prices are understood to be
significantly higher than a typical first class seat.
Moreover, the 747-8I Intercontinental has a considerably larger
revenue cargo volume than the A380, which enables it to carry more
revenue and profit-generating cargoes after fully loading passengers’
luggage to more destinations, including places where cargo demand is
insufficient to support dedicated freighter flights. As Asia/Pacific
carriers transport around 40% of the world’s cargoes in terms of freight
tonnage kilometres (FTKs), the 747-8I Intercontinental is better
positioned from a cargo perspective than the A380.
The A380 has a total cargo volume of 5,875 cubic feet and a revenue
cargo volume of 2,995 cubic feet, whereas the 747-8I has a total cargo
volume and revenue cargo volume of 2,995 cu. ft. and 3,895 cu. ft.,
respectively.
This capability would be crucial as carriers usually carry the bulk
of their cargoes in underbelly capacity of their passenger aircraft,
such as Cathay Pacific which carries 70% of its cargoes in the
underbelly of its passenger aircraft.
| A380
| 777-300ER
| 747-8 Intercontinental
|
Pallets (415 cu.ft)
| 6
| 8
| 7
|
Pallet Volume (cu.ft)
| 2,490
| 3,320
| 2,905
|
LD-3 (160 cu.ft)
| 18
| 20
| 0
|
LD-1 (175 cu.ft)
| 0
| 0
| 16
|
Container volume (cu.ft)
| 2,880
| 3,200
| 2,800
|
Bulk Cargo (cu.ft)
| 505
| 600
| 640
|
Total cargo (cu.ft.)
| 5,875
| 7,120
| 6,345
|
Passengers
| 555
| 365
| 467
|
Passenger bag volume (cu. ft.)
| 2,886
| 1,898
| 2,428.4
|
LD containers for bags
| 18
| 12
| 14
|
Revenue cargo volume (cu. ft.)
| 2,995
| 5,200
| 3,895
|
Source: BoeingHowever, the single biggest downside risk for the Boeing 747-8
programme remains the global economy as it is nevertheless perceived as a
growth aircraft instead of a direct Boeing 747-400 replacement, of
which the most natural Boeing 747-400 replacement would still be the
365-seat 777-300ERs as it provides an ideal platform for airlines to
maximise their yields in focusing on premium cabins and carrying the
largest amount of revenue cargo possible when compared to both the
747-8I Intercontinental and the A380.
As the global economy is currently at the brink of entering a renewed
recession, of which investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates in an
October 4th note that there is a 40% chance of the world’s largest
economy – US entering a double-dip recession and its unemployment to
remain stubbornly high at 9.5% in 2012, it would be the biggest
challenge for both Airbus and Boeing in selling new A380s and 747-8I
Intercontinentals in the short to medium term.
“Challenges? For the -8F, arriving just after a serious global
downturn, and just before a possible double-dip downturn, is unpleasant,
particularly for a programme that is meant to provide the bulk of
demand for a new 747 model. For the -8I, surviving Airbus’ heavy A380
discounting is an ongoing problem too,” Teal Group vice president (VP)
of analysis Richard Aboulafia commented.
Last but not least, as the 747-8 progresses with the -8I
Intercontinental beginning the final functions and reliability (F&R)
tests and completing more than 75% of flight testing required before
the US Federal Aviation Administration grants its amended type
certificate (ATC) to the passenger variant, the 747-8 will be facing
numerous challenges ahead, including rework which led to a single delivery
of 747-8I Intercontinental in 2011 and the challenge to sell more
freighters and Intercontinentals in times of economic uncertainty.
Fortunately, the 747-8 aircraft family has a sound business case and arguably a better one than the A380 over the long term.
JPRS
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par Poncho (Admin) Mer 14 Sep 2011 - 9:59
