Boeing 747-8F et I

The international airfreight sector has struggled since 2008, but
Boeing thought market demand would rise this year as it prepared for a
production rate bump in the 747-8, the world's best-selling large
freighter. Unfortunately, recovery in Asia, Europe and North America is
now unlikely until 2014.
Boeing's market forecasters still
expect freighter demand to more than double over the next 20 years,
rising an average of 5.2% per year. That should push orders to 3,200
from the current level of 1,750, giving a big boost to the 747, which
hold a 55% market share.
But high fuel prices, political and
economic turmoil—such as the Arab Spring and European debt crisis—and
sluggish growth in China and Asia are hurting markets now, says Boeing's
cargo analyst, Tom Crabtree. Though the 747-8 Freighter offers a 17%
fuel advantage over the 747-400, cargo companies have been parking
freighters for lack of work. The cool freight market has raised alarms
on the 747-8 assembly line.
“We're in a bit of a quandary on how to smooth out our production system,” says Boeing Senior Vice President Pat Shanahan.
Despite
the weak freight market, Boeing moved to a two-per-month build rate in
July. As of Nov. 28, it had delivered 27 747-8s this year, including six
VIP versions and the first four of 20 Intercontinental passenger models
for Lufthansa. Of its 79 aircraft in backlog, 46 are freighters. It has
manufactured 50 747-8s but delivered only 36.
While freight
remains a “watch and see” item for Boeing, it is counting on passenger
aircraft campaigns in 2013 to help smooth out the 747-8 order mix,
Shanahan told an RBC Capital Markets teleconference last week. But given
their longer lead times, even a burst of passenger aircraft orders
cannot plump up the 747 build rate until 2015 or 2016. “We're going to
have to hold our breath through this period [2013] with a mixture of
passenger sales and moving ahead some of the [other] deliveries to
smooth out the production line,” he said.
Still, Boeing expects to meet its goal of delivering 70-85 747-8s and 787s in roughly equal numbers this year.

Boeing has dropped the empty weight of the latest 747-8
Freighters by 2.5t compared to the aircraft delivered a year ago and
tweaked the aileron configuration to boost aerodynamic performance.
The improvements were revealed at an industry conference on 29 November by a Cargolux executive, who noted the long-awaited weight reduction arrived with the delivery of the carrier's sixth 747-8F in mid-November.
"Strangely,
we're very happy" with the new aircraft's performance, Yves Germeaux
said at the Ascend Aviation 2020 Finance Forum, a Flightglobal-sponsored
event, in San Francisco.
Cargolux helped Boeing launch the
747-8F with the first order, but then refused to accept delivery of the
first 747-8 for several weeks last year due to disputes about
contractual guarantees. Another carrier, Atlas Air, cancelled orders for
three 747-8Fs last year partly due to performance issues.
But the Luxembourg-based carrier's position appears to have softened with the latest arrival in its fleet.
"The performance, with [the improvements] all in mind, is quite close to what Boeing had in mind," Germeaux added.
In
response, Boeing agreed "overall" with the Cargolux assessment of the
performance of its sixth 747-8F, but also noted that some customers have
reported a 1% fuel burn improvement compared to Boeing's promises.
Boeing
has not publicly updated the empty weight specification on the 747-8F
since December 2011. At that time, airport planning documents released
by the airframer showed the baseline weight had already started decline
since first delivery in October 2011, falling by 363kg (800lb) to
190.9t.
At the same time, Boeing increased maximum take-off
weight for the 747-8 by 1.3% to 448t, based on the results of a flight
loads survey that showed extra payload margin in the airframe.
Since
that time, the Freighter model has also benefitted from improvements
introduced with the certification of the passenger 747-8
Intercontinental model on 14 December 2011.
Boeing now says that
the 747-8I added enhanced positioning of the fly-by-wire outboard
aileron in cruise, and that feature was retrofitted on the 747-8F. More
improvements are expected to be introduced next year, with the second
performance improvement package (PIP 2) of the General Electric GEnx-2b
engines.

Boeing could be forced to slow down production or build unsold 747-8s after 2013, the company warns in a new filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
A
"number" of unsold production slots for 747-8 Freighters and
Intercontinental passenger models must be filled after this year to keep
production on track at a rate of two aircraft per month, Boeing says in
the annual filing.
"If we are unable to obtain orders for
multiple Freighter aircraft in 2013 consistent with our near-term
production plans, we may be required to take actions including reducing
the number of airplanes produced and/or building airplanes for which we
have not received firm orders," Boeing says.
As of 31 January,
Boeing had 67 unfilled orders for 747-8s, including 39 747-8Fs and 28
747-8Is. The company is building 747-8s at a rate of 24 per year, but
customers have not claimed all of the delivery slots for next year.
The
market has not yet appeared to turn in Boeing's favour. Overall air
cargo demand remains weak and Boeing's expected level of interest in the
passenger model by airlines has not yet materialised.
Meanwhile,
Boeing says it will continue focusing on reducing travelled work,
improving supply chain efficiency and implementing cost reductions.
"If
market and production risks cannot be mitigated," Boeing adds, "the
program could face an additional reach-forward loss that may be
material."
Spirit AeroSystems, which supplies the 747-8 nose
section among other components, has not adjusted its production plans so
far, chief executive Jeff Turner told analysts on a teleconference
today.
"Right now we're assuming that those [unclaimed positions] are going to fill in," Turner says

EVERETT, Wash., April 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA)
announced that it will adjust the production rate for the 747-8 program
from two airplanes to 1.75 airplanes per month because of lower market
demand for large passenger and freighter airplanes.


Boeing will continue to monitor market conditions and their effect on
production rates moving forward. The company expects long-term average
growth in the air cargo market to resume in 2014, and forecasts a demand
for 790 large airplanes (such as the 747-8 Intercontinental) to be
delivered worldwide over the next 20 years.


The 747-8 family provides airlines with double-digit improvements in
fuel burn, operating costs and emissions, while being 30 percent quieter
and adding more capacity. To date, there are 110 orders for passenger
and cargo versions of the 747-8, 46 of which have been delivered.


The first delivery of an airplane at the new production rate is
expected in early 2014. The production rate change is not expected to
have a significant financial impact.

*In fact, as I sit here typing this, I have pulled up two flight plans
for flights from Anchorage to Hong Kong. One is a B747-400F. The zero
fuel weight (ZFW) is 177.3T and Fuel Burn for the whole flight is 82.6T.
The other flight is a B747-8F. The ZFW is 215.7T and the Fuel Burn is
82.7T! The -8F is carrying 38.4T more weight and burning essentially the
same amount of fuel! That is some serious performance improvement!

The upgraded engine forms the core of a broader set of aerodynamic and structural improvements that have been introduced since the freighter and passenger versions of the aircraft first entered service in 2011 and 2012 respectively. “Together with the other improvements made since entry-into-service on the 747-8F at the end of 2011, the engine PIP bundles 1.8% with another 1.7% for a total of 3.5% (fuel burn),” says 747-8 chief project engineer Bruce Dickinson.  In addition to drag reduction and improvements to the cruise efficiency of the wing, the empty weight of the 747-8 has been reduced by almost 8,000 lb, while payload-range capability has been boosted through a 12,000 lb. increase in maximum take-off weight.  [/font][/color][/size][size=3][color=#000000][font=Calibri]The GEnx-2B67 PIP incorporates an all-new low-pressure turbine, as well as compressor, combustor and turbine improvements derived from the second batch of upgrades (PIP II) devised for the GEnx-1B engine on the 787. GE provisionally expected a 1.6% fuel burn improvement but, based on positive test data, upped this to 1.8%. The package of upgrades was launched after pre-delivery flight tests revealed a fuel burn performance shortfall in excess of 2%.

The 1500th 747 is being rolled out of the Everett factory pic.twitter.com/I7y5K0S7zk

— Paine Airport (@mattcawby) 25 Avril 2014