Boeing 747-8F et I

The former largest aircraft, the Boeing 747-400, burns 20 percent more fuel per seat than the A380, allowing operators to increase capacity by around 20 percent at no overall extra cost, or maintain the same capacity but fly it at 15 to 20 percent lower cost per trip and per seat, over a week’s schedule. The latest 747 derivative, the 747-8, burns eight percent more fuel per seat than the A380, while the twin-engined 777-300ER burns 12 percent more fuel per seat than the A380. On a per-seat basis (using same-comfort standards and comparable cabin layouts) the 777-300ER costs 22 percent more to operate than the A380.

The entry into service (EIS) of the 747-8I Intercontinental with launch customer Lufthansa on 1st June on the Frankfurt-Washington Dulles route, coupled with the nearly 9 months of operations of the -8F freighter variant, have largely eliminated the risk of hiccups usually encountered during EISs for potential buyers.

“When people see this entry into service being successful, there will be more demand for the 747-8,” Lufthansa Passenger Airlines chief executive Carsten Spohr said.

Boeing is equally bullish on the sales prospects of the 747-8I Intercontinental, with Boeing officials repeatedly hinting at future orders.

“In the last 30 days, we have put out 25 proposals for aircraft [to a number of airlines]. We’re having conversations about where the -8 may fit in. [Boeing] feels the 747-8I is a viable aircraft for all long-haul decisions,” Boeing 747 programme manager Elizabeth Lund revealed.

“These will come in two versions: we hope to get confirmation of some of the MoUs [memoranda of understanding] and I believe we will see additional sales as well,” Lund was quoted as saying in a flightglobal report.

With the 747-8 production line at Everett running at a 2 units per month rate, the upcoming Farnborough Air Show and the months that follow are crucial in garnering new firm orders for the passenger variant such as Turkish Airlines’ pending order for 15 very large airplanes (VLAs), in order to beef up its combined family backlog of 86 as of May 31st, which equates to roughly 3.58 years worth of backlog.

Similar to other aircraft programmes such as the Airbus A380 which was overweight by 5-6 tonnes at service entry in 2007 and the 787 Dreamliner of which line number LN66, the first clean airplane requiring no post-production rework, was still around 2 tonnes overweight versus the targeted manufacturer’s empty weight (MEW), according to Aspire Aviation‘s sources at Boeing, the early-built 747-8 examples are also plagued by performance shortfalls.

“It’s within the limits which we took into our calculation, but it’s not quite as good as Boeing and we were hoping. This is due to weight – resulting in higher fuel burn – and the engine, which can be further improved,” Lufthansa Passenger Airlines chief executive Carsten Spohr elaborated.

According to Aspire Aviation‘s multiple sources at the Chicago-based airframer, the early-built 747-8I Intercontinental examples are 2.3 tonnes to 2.7 tonnes (5,000-6,000lbs) overweight, with the overall block fuel burn of the aircraft being “at least 3%” higher than specifications.

The block fuel burn shortfall on the -8I passenger variant is nevertheless better than the fuel burn miss on the early-built 747-8F freighters delivered to Cargolux and Atlas Air, the same sources say, which put the overall block fuel burn as “6%-8% higher than 2006 specifications”.

This, coupled with overweight of the freighter, leads customers such as Cathay Pacific Cargo being not able to fully utilise the -8F’s advertised 134 tonnes of payload, despite a 6 tonnes (13,228lbs) increase in the aircraft’s maximum take-off weight (MTOW) to 448 tonnes from April onwards which Boeing says does not affect the freighter’s payload capability. Cathay Pacific director of cargo Nick Rhodes told flightglobal that typical transpacific flights are able to carry 124 tonnes of payload, versus the promised 133 tonnes, which is only achieved on shorter missions.

To claw back to its 2006 specifications following the redesigned wing and strengthening in fuselage from the original 2005 design, the 747-8I Intercontinental and -8F will feature an improved General Electric GEnx-2B engine, whose 2.7% shortfall in engine specific fuel consumption (SFC) was one of the contributors to the performance misses.

“The GEnx-2B only has one PIP [Performance improvement package] and we just call it the GEnx-2B PIP (no 1 after it). The GEnx-2B PIP combines the learnings from both GEnx-1B PIPs – so the improvements are focused on the high pressure compressor, combustor, high pressure turbine and the low pressure turbine. We anticipate ~1.6% improvement in SFC with the GEnx-2B PIP,” General Electric (GE) spokeswoman Deborah Case told Aspire Aviation.

“At this time, GE is focused on certifying PIP 2 on the GEnx-1B and the PIP on the GEnx-2B and has no plans for additional enhancements,” Case revealed.

Furthermore, Boeing is planning to implement a weight improvement package containing numerous items worth 2.7 tonnes to 3.6 tonnes (6,000lbs-8,000lbs), completely negating the 5,000-6,000lbs overweight, which along with the GEnx-2B PIP will bring the 747-8′s block fuel burn back to the 2006 specification from 2014 onwards.

“I expect from aircraft 11 to have improvements. This delivery depends on whether we stretch delivery times, but we’re talking 2014 on today’s schedule,” Lufthansa Passenger Airlines chief executive Carsten Spohr said.

“At this point, the committed block point improvements get us very, very close to where we committed to be at the start [of the 747-8I Intercontinental programme], but not beyond it. But it’s beyond guarantees back to where the original 2006 brochure fuel burn and operating cost levels were. The GEnx PIP [performance improvement package] will be big. We’re upgrading the FMC [Flight Management Computer] and some of the other flight control software systems and we are continuing to take weight out of the airplane, so we’re looking at the latest generation structural designs that will continue to improve the performance. We’re also looking at new IFE [in-flight entertainment] systems and other new interior features,” Boeing 747 programme manager Elizabeth Lund said.

“This was the second generation of the FMC, and we’re going to introduce a third – block point three – which will add more functionality. The first generation could do virtually everything the 747-400s could do and a little more, and we keep adding steps. Block point three will have the latest RNP [required navigation performance] capability, some climb and direct route capability that allow you to maximise efficiency,” Lund told flightglobal.

The 747-8I Intercontinental’s tail fuel tank may be reinstated in 2014 pending further flight testing in 2013, Aspire Aviation‘s sources at Boeing said.

Lufthansa’s introduction of the Boeing 747-8 has been a smooth ride so far, according to Dean Raineri, director of new aircraft readiness at Lufthansa Technik.

Raineri tells delegates at the MRO Europe conference that the airline achieved 100% dispatch reliability in the first two months of 747-8 operations – June and July. In August performance fell to 98.2%, but Raineri notes that with a fleet of only three aircraft so far, that is still a significant achievement.

The airline currently operates 10 Airbus A380s, and they are at just below 99% in terms of dispatch reliability.

Raineri says that “you cannot start too early” in terms of preparing for new aircraft entering the fleet, but that the bulk of the work and the steepest learning curve are in the last 15-20 months before entry into service.

While the 747-8 is a derivative aircraft, Raineri points out that a lot of its systems have been updated, so the introduction was similar to getting an aircraft that was developed from scratch. He predicts that airlines will have a similar experience when introducing types like the Boeing 737 MAX or the Boeing 777X over the next few years.

BOEING AND GE FOCUS ON PERFORMANCE BOOST

Boeing advertises the 747-8 as having 10% lower seat-mile costs than
the 747-400 and 2% lower trip costs. But maximising the new Jumbo's
efficiency has become a slog after early-build aircraft came in
overweight and the General Electric GEnx-2B missed its original
fuel-burn target by 2.7%.

Boeing, in conjunction with GE, is working on a package of engine,
aerodynamic and weight improvements to address all the issues and ensure
that the performance of 747-8s delivered from 2014 will be "within 1%"
of the original target, says chief project engineer Bruce Dickinson.

TARGETS SET

"For the current as-delivered airplanes, we are consistently seeing a
real-world fuel burn that is 1% better than our forecast. So with the
increment for the PIP [performance improvement package] engine - which
is audited to be a 1.6% improvement above today - it puts us right on
track to meet our as-promised performance," he says.

Dickinson says GE is "bullish" that it can beat the 1.6% targeted for
the PIP. Testing for the package will begin in mid-2013 and approval is
scheduled for the end of next year.

One improvement that will be incorporated in the PIP for the
freighter is a higher-thrust rating for use at hot and high airports.
"This gives up to 4% additional thrust and will provide great capability
for a number of city pairs such as Mexico City-Bogata or from airports
in China," says Dickinson.

The international airfreight sector has struggled since 2008, but
Boeing thought market demand would rise this year as it prepared for a
production rate bump in the 747-8, the world's best-selling large
freighter. Unfortunately, recovery in Asia, Europe and North America is
now unlikely until 2014.
Boeing's market forecasters still
expect freighter demand to more than double over the next 20 years,
rising an average of 5.2% per year. That should push orders to 3,200
from the current level of 1,750, giving a big boost to the 747, which
hold a 55% market share.
But high fuel prices, political and
economic turmoil—such as the Arab Spring and European debt crisis—and
sluggish growth in China and Asia are hurting markets now, says Boeing's
cargo analyst, Tom Crabtree. Though the 747-8 Freighter offers a 17%
fuel advantage over the 747-400, cargo companies have been parking
freighters for lack of work. The cool freight market has raised alarms
on the 747-8 assembly line.
“We're in a bit of a quandary on how to smooth out our production system,” says Boeing Senior Vice President Pat Shanahan.
Despite
the weak freight market, Boeing moved to a two-per-month build rate in
July. As of Nov. 28, it had delivered 27 747-8s this year, including six
VIP versions and the first four of 20 Intercontinental passenger models
for Lufthansa. Of its 79 aircraft in backlog, 46 are freighters. It has
manufactured 50 747-8s but delivered only 36.
While freight
remains a “watch and see” item for Boeing, it is counting on passenger
aircraft campaigns in 2013 to help smooth out the 747-8 order mix,
Shanahan told an RBC Capital Markets teleconference last week. But given
their longer lead times, even a burst of passenger aircraft orders
cannot plump up the 747 build rate until 2015 or 2016. “We're going to
have to hold our breath through this period [2013] with a mixture of
passenger sales and moving ahead some of the [other] deliveries to
smooth out the production line,” he said.
Still, Boeing expects to meet its goal of delivering 70-85 747-8s and 787s in roughly equal numbers this year.