Actualités d'Embraer

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Le carnet de commandes d’avions commerciaux d’Embraer commence à fondre comme neige au soleil. A la fin du premier semestre 2012, le constructeur brésilien n’avait plus que 200 avions à livrer contre 261 à la fin de la même période de 2011.

Signe qui ne trompe pas : en valeur, le carnet de commandes est tombé à 12,9 milliards de dollars à la fin du deuxième trimestre 2012 alors qu’il était encore de 14,7 milliards à la fin du trimestre précédent.

Embraer avait livré un total de 105 jets commerciaux (145/170/175/190/195) sur l’ensemble de 2011. Un nombre de livraisons qui sera dépassé cette année puisque sur le seul premier semestre 2012, 56 avions ont été livrés, soit 11 de plus par rapport à la même période de 2011.

A ce rythme, le constructeur est parti pour se retrouver avec deux années de production devant lui à la fin de cette année.

A moins que les ventes ne reprennent durant le second semestre 2012. Car, le constructeur est confronté à un véritable effondrement de ses ventes qui ne portent que sur 21 appareils au premier semestre 2012.

Embraer avait vendu pas moins de 124 avions commerciaux sur l’ensemble de 2011, en hausse de 28 % par rapport à 2010.

La décision de lancer des versions re-motorisées de la famille E-Jets n’est donc pas étrangère à cette situation commercialement dégradée. Il s’agit bien de relancer les ventes en proposant au marché des produits apportant de nettes améliorations en terme de coûts d’exploitation

Brazilian plane maker Embraer is facing rising pressure to lower the price of its regional E-Jets to land new orders, its chief executive said on Tuesday, as a weaker global economy and stiffer competition drag on sales.

"Pricing pressure is a growing concern, especially if we have to stimulate demand a little bit," CEO Frederico Curado told analysts on a conference call to discuss earnings. "But so far we haven't done anything outside our classic behavior, being very conservative in the quality of the deals we have signed."

A weaker global economy, new direct competitors and aggressive sales campaigns by Boeing (BA.N) and Airbus EADS.PA in the neighboring narrow-body segment have made it harder to meet targets for commercial jets this year, Curado said.

But the world's largest maker of regional jets is still aiming to book a new order for every E-Jet it delivers this year, after its order backlog plunged to a six-year low in June.

"We do have some challenges in the short-term as far as sales. We are still targeting a one-to-one book-to-bill ratio," Curado said. "Of course, it is more challenging than it was three months ago, but it is still possible."

Embraer (EMBR3.SA) shares slipped 1.2 percent to 12.94 reais in afternoon trading, erasing a 5 percent jump in opening trade after the company raised its profitability forecast for 2012.

The company said in its second-quarter earnings release late on Monday that a more favorable exchange rate and solid operating performance in the first half of 2012 led it to raise the outlook for profit margins this year.

Embraer now expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, a gauge of operating profit known as EBITDA, to equal between 12.5 percent and 13.5 percent of revenue in 2012. The company previously forecast a so-called EBITDA margin between 11.5 and 12.5 percent this year.

Brazil's currency, the real, lost 10 percent against the U.S. dollar in the second quarter, which analysts expect to boost Embraer's long-term profitability, as about one-third of its costs and only a tenth of sales are denominated in reais.

SCARCE NEW ORDERS

Still, analysts have warned that Embraer will burn through its order pipeline quickly if it does not land new orders or slow down its assembly line.

The company booked about one new regional jet order for every three it delivered in the first six months of 2012, reducing its backlog to the lowest level since 2006, worth around two years of revenue.

A fragile global economy and Europe's debt crisis have depressed new demand for E-Jets, which are facing stiffer competition from Canada's Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO) and newer Japanese rival Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp, a unit of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd (7011.T).

Looking ahead to next year's production schedule, Curado said he anticipated a slight increase in business jet production and continued growth from the defense unit.

If Embraer can fill its order book for steady E-Jet output next year, he said, overall business should be stable or expand slightly next year.

Embraer clinched a much-needed regional jet order from Venezuela on Tuesday, when Venezuela's Conviasa Airlines agreed to buy six E-190 jets during a visit to Brasilia by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

The order, which was agreed in principle in December, is worth $272 million at list prices and could grow to $904 million if the airline exercises options for an additional 14 planes, according to a statement released by Embraer. The first deliveries are planned to start by the end of 2012.

P Morgan has downgraded Embraer to neutral from overweight and warned investors that the Brazilian airframer's backlog for commercial jets could erode faster than expected.

The research note sent to investors on 24 September also cites Embraer's defence business as a "bright spot", while business jet sales might not return to a "healthy" outlook until 2014.

But JP Morgan's immediate concern about Embraer is a possible 10% decline in the backlog for E-Jets this year to 180. The airframer typically averages a backlog with 330% more jets than annual deliveries, but that margin has been sliced nearly in half this year to 170%, according to JP Morgan.

The equity research service now assumes that Embraer will deliver 90 aircraft in 2013, or 15-20 fewer than currently forecasted by management. That prediction is based on JP Morgan's estimate that only 75 production slots are sold next year, and deferral rates remain "persistent".

JP Morgan blames the reduction on economic sluggishness that has limited US regional traffic to 1.1% this year through August, while global traffic is up 6%.

JP Morgran's forecast also assumes that several US airlines could announce orders for new regional jets over the next several months.

Delta Air Lines is expected to order up to 50 aircraft this year, according to JP Morgan. The SkyTeam carrier has options to buy 36 E-175s, but traditionally buys Bombardier CRJs. New orders are also expected from American Airlines, SkyWest Inc, and US Airways.

But Embraer will have to compete on each order with Bombardier CRJs and new entrants, including the Mitsubishi Regional Jet, Comac ARJ-21, Bombardier CS100 and Sukhoi Superjet. The latter four aircraft types have accounted for 51% of 430 net orders from 2009-2011, versus only 19% between 2007-2008, JP Morgan says.

JP Morgan is more positive about the business jet market. The firm's analysts estimate deliveries of 15 Legacy 650 or Lineage 1000 large cabin jets this year, along with 75 Phenom light jets. Deliveries of Phenom jets will likely not enter a "healthy" market range of between 100 to 120 annual deliveries until 2014, JP Morgan says.

The defence business, which was restructured as a standalone company in 2011, is expected to generate double-digit business growth based on the ramp-up for the KC-390 and a $4 billion contract from the Brazilian army to create an integrated border surveillance system called System for the Vigilance of the Frontier (SISFRON).

Addison Schonland
‏@aschonland





Requested info from Embraer about P&W GTF selection. Response..."Soon Addison, very soon"