Bombardier C-Séries (partie 1)

Bombardier a publié aujourd'hui ses résultats financiers du troisième trimestre clos le 30 septembre 2012. Les revenus ont totalisé 4,3 milliards $, comparativement à 4,6 milliards $ pour la période correspondante de l'exercice précédent. Le résultat avant charges de financement, revenus de financement et impôts sur le résultat (RAII) a été de 248 millions $, comparativement à 301 millions $ l'exercice précédent. La marge RAII s'est chiffrée à 5,7 %, contre 6,5 % l'exercice précédent.

Le résultat net du troisième trimestre clos le 30 septembre 2012 s'est établi à 212 millions $, en regard de 192 millions $ pour le trimestre correspondant de l'exercice précédent. Le résultat par action (RPA) dilué a été de 0,12 $, comparativement à un RPA dilué de 0,11 $ l'exercice précédent. L'utilisation des flux de trésorerie disponibles (flux de trésorerie liés aux activités opérationnelles, déduction faite des additions nettes d'immobilisations corporelles et incorporelles) a été de 237 millions $ pour le troisième trimestre clos le 30 septembre 2012, comparativement à une utilisation de 346 millions $ l'exercice précédent. Le niveau de liquidités de 3,5 milliards $ inclut 2,1 milliards $ de trésorerie et équivalents de trésorerie au 30 septembre 2012, en regard de respectivement 4,1 milliards $ et 3,4 milliards $ au 31 décembre 2011. Le carnet de commandes total a augmenté de 4,7 milliards $ depuis le début de l'année pour atteindre 58,6 milliards $ au 30 septembre 2012.

"Chez Aéronautique, depuis le début de l'année, de solides progrès ont été enregistrés dans le programme de développement CSeries et les essais progressent bien, a déclaré Pierre Beaudoin, président et chef de la direction de Bombardier Inc. Nous avons tiré parti de l'élan de ces derniers mois pour franchir un certain nombre d'étapes clés; toutefois, certains aspects requièrent plus de temps. De concert avec nos fournisseurs, nous avons maintenant harmonisé tous nos engagements du calendrier du programme. Il en résulte que le vol inaugural de l'avion CS100 est maintenant prévu d'ici la fin juin 2013, un calendrier réalisable selon toutes les parties. Nous allons continuer de faire des mises à jour sur le programme régulièrement, avec une mise à jour plus détaillée au premier trimestre de l'an prochain.

"Transport a bénéficié encore une fois ce trimestre de la grande étendue de son marché, enregistrant un bon niveau de nouvelles commandes couvrant l'ensemble de ses segments. Avec un ratio de nouvelles commandes sur revenus de 1,1 à ce jour, son carnet de commandes a atteint 32,5 milliards $ au 30 septembre 2012. Chez Aéronautique, les revenus pour le trimestre sont restés stables à 2,3 milliards $ avec un total de 57 avions livrés contre 68 l'an dernier. La demande pour nos produits est demeurée solide avec un total de 297 commandes fermes depuis le début de l'exercice contre 206 l'an dernier.

"Malgré la faiblesse de l'économie, notre diversification sur le plan des produits et sur le plan géographique nous a permis de continuer de bâtir un carnet de commandes solide de 58,6 milliards $, tout en investissant dans nos nouvelles plateformes et en maintenant la stabilité de nos résultats. Les années à venir s'annoncent passionnantes alors que nous commencerons à voir nos produits prendre vie", a conclu M. Beaudoin.

Le programme de développement d'avions CSeries enregistre de solides progrès. La fabrication du banc d'essai statique de cellule complète (CAST) et celle de l'avion destiné au premier vol progressent bien. Les résultats du banc d'essai et de certification intégré des systèmes au sol (CIASTA / avion 0) sont tels que prévu. Plusieurs étapes clés ont déjà été franchies mais, à ce point-ci du programme, le groupe Aéronautique rencontre des difficultés, principalement reliées à certains fournisseurs. Il en résulte que le vol inaugural aura lieu d'ici la fin juin 2013 et l'entrée en service de l'avion CS100 devrait avoir lieu environ un an après le vol inaugural.

Le calendrier pour l'avion CS300, sur lequel porte une partie importante des commandes et engagements des programmes CSeries, demeure inchangé, et l'entrée en service est prévue pour la fin 2014.

Bombardier Aéronautique

Les revenus de Bombardier Aéronautique ont totalisé 2,3 milliards $, un montant similaire à celui de l'exercice précédent. Le RAII s'est établi à 123 millions $, se traduisant en une marge RAII de 5,4 % pour le troisième trimestre clos le 30 septembre 2012, en regard à 129 millions $, ou 5,6 %, l'exercice précédent. L'utilisation des flux de trésorerie disponibles a totalisé 68 millions $, comparativement à des flux de trésorerie disponibles de 53 millions $ pour le trimestre correspondant de l'exercice précédent.

Cinquante-sept avions ont été livrés au cours du troisième trimestre clos le 30 septembre 2012, comparativement à 68 au cours du trimestre correspondant de l'exercice précédent. Le carnet de commandes de Bombardier Aéronautique a augmenté de 18,6 % pour s'établir à 26,1 milliards $ au 30 septembre 2012, en regard de 22,0 milliards $ au 31 décembre 2011.

Bombardier Avions d'affaires a connu un volume robuste de nouvelles commandes, enregistrant 45 commandes nettes, en regard de 30 au cours du trimestre correspondant de l'exercice précédent. Cela inclut trois commandes fermes de plusieurs avions pour un total de 19 appareils de la gamme d'avions Global, d'une valeur de 1,2 milliard $, selon les prix affichés.

Bombardier Avions commerciaux a reçu 38 commandes fermes au cours du troisième trimestre clos le 30 septembre 2012, dont la conversion de la commande conditionnelle de WestJet portant sur 20 biturbopropulseurs Q400 NextGen en une commande ferme d'une valeur de 683 millions $, selon les prix affichés. Est également incluse dans le carnet de commandes la conversion en commande ferme de six biréacteurs régionaux CRJ900 NextGen et 12 biturbopropulseurs Q400 NextGen. La valeur de ces commmandes fermes totalise 643 millions $.

We’ve made substantial progress. First flight will be by end of June 2013 with EIS for CS100 a year later. CS300 timeline still EIS YE2014.
BBD did not identify “major systems” that are taking longer to arrive for assembly. Delay won’t have an impact on cash assumptions of the business plan; contingency was already figured in.
What comfort can you give us June target is achievable? Answer: We’ve been working with customers with transparency and consideration that early delivery positions could have some variation. It was important for us to maintain a target date to get all suppliers a harmonized delivery schedule. It made no sense at all to give them a break. We feel the harmonized schedule is now the end of June. There is now a commitment by the suppliers, you see the aircraft coming together.
There will be some individual discussions for penalties from some suppliers.
The fear is that four or five months out will see another delay? Answer: There’s a lot of things that can happen, but we are more at execution phase. We know where the suppliers are at. We have more visibility than at design stage. Assembly of the parts we’ve done so far are extremely well. We are testing some versions of the software and when we go to flight we’ll have the latest version. We have more visibility now.
Potential customers are most impressed with the amount of testing we are doing up front.
There is no delay on the engine; it will be certified by the end of this year.
BBD was asked specifically if fly-by-wire was the reason for the delay. Answer: It is the most challenging.
Complete static testing expected in April.
Don’t anticipate much in the way of penalties for customers.
160-Seat CS300 is a customer option. It’s a question of seating density; it’s not another model.
There are 55 Tier 1 suppliers and more than 300 more. Software is a big part of the challenge we have and software is everywhere in a product like this

Delayed delivery of certain critical components leading to a need to “reharmonize” integration tasks has forced Bombardier to delay first flight of its new CSeries CS100 until at least the end of next June, roughly six months later than the most recent target. If all goes according to the latest plans, the smaller of the two-variant narrowbody series will consequently enter service in the middle of 2014.

The timeline for the larger of the pair–the CS300–remains unchanged, added Bombardier, meaning it still expects that airplane to enter service by the end of 2014.

“Since the beginning of the year, substantial headway has been made in the CSeries development program and testing is progressing well,” said Bombardier president and CEO Pierre Beaudoin in a statement issued last week. “We have used the momentum gained over the last few months to meet a number of key milestones; however, some areas require more time. Together with our suppliers, we have now fully harmonized all commitments to the program’s schedule. Therefore, the CS100’s first flight will now occur by the end of June 2013–a timeline that all parties have agreed is achievable.”

Speaking during last week’s third-quarter earnings call, Beaudoin pointed to the complexity of many of the CSeries’ systems–foremost among them the airplane’s fly-by-wire system–as another contributor to its failure to meet the December first-flight goal. Still, he expressed satisfaction with the “substantial headway” made during the last year and what he called momentum gained by suppliers after their failure to deliver parts on time led to a sequencing “challenge.” He wouldn’t identify any of the CSeries’ some 55 Tier 1 suppliers and 300 sub-tier suppliers as a culprit, however, and, in fact, acknowledged that delays by Bombardier in delivering design drawings led to some of the delays.

Consequently, Beaudoin downplayed the potential for any penalties Bombardier might impose. Similarly, he as much as dismissed the consequences of any penalties Bombardier might have to pay to its customers, emphasizing his company’s complete transparency and conservative approach to delivery guarantees.

In terms of cost to the program, the delay will not result in an expenditure that deviates from the original business plan, which, said Beaudoin, contained contingencies for such an event.

Still holding firm orders for 138 CSeries jets, Bombardier has collected letters of intent, options and commitments accounting for another 352 airplanes.

"I think we are going to fly soon after the
new year: not the 2nd (of January), but early next year," Chet Fuller,
senior vice president for Bombardier Commercial Aircraft, said.
Announcing
the delay from a previous goal of end-2012, the plane and train maker
had blamed unspecified supplier delays for disruption to its biggest
plane project.
Fuller said the
problem was mainly linked to a single supplier that he declined to
identify, although he hinted when answering questions that it could
involve the complex process of preparing the jet's advanced digital
systems for certification.
He
dismissed industry speculation that the problem was linked to
Bombardier's suppliers in China, where the Canadian firm extended a marketing agreement with state-owned COMAC at this week's international air show in Zhuhai, near Hong Kong.
He broadly exonerated a production plant in Northern Ireland that is responsible for the plane's carbon-composite wings.
"There is some schedule pressure there on the wing. A while back there was some schedule pressure in other areas," he said.
"At
this point of any programme, something is always competing for first
place (on delays). Right now, it is one particular supplier who is
solidly in the lead," he added.
Analysts
say that with the latest delay, Bombardier faces an even tougher sales
job. Orders for the jet, which is priced significantly cheaper than its
rivals' planes, have slowed with just five so far this year. In total,
it has only 138 firm orders.
COMPETITION FOR RESOURCES
Fuller
said the C-Series would break new ground in digital architecture and
that this posed particular problems in getting ready for safety
certification, given the "reams" of paperwork required to log each line
of software for inspectors.
"These
airplanes are now controlled by hundreds of millions of lines of code
-- and not simple lines of code. Just when you think you couldn't
possibly have a simultaneous and multiple failure someone proves you
can," Fuller said.
"The
certification authorities really have no interest in programme
performance and every interest in safety. For the flying public that is a
good thing, but it does make programme performance a challenge."
The
problem of applying a decades-old airworthiness process to the digital
revolution now sweeping through plane design contributed to a four-year
delay to Europe's A400M military airlifter, as engineers struggled to
track engine software.
So
far, the C-Series delays are nowhere near as serious as for the Airbus
military airlifter or Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, which entered service
three years late, but analysts say sales of the aircraft could remain
subdued until its first flight.
Bombardier
expects deliveries of the 110-seat CS110 version of the C-Series to
start in mid-2014. The entry into service for Bombardier's 130-seat
CS300 is still seen at the end of 2014.
Although it is new, Bombardier's $3.4 billion plane project faces problems shared by many aircraft manufacturers.
A
global supply base is trying to cope with production increases in most
major civil programmes and some military ones like America's F-35
fighter just when credit remains scarce.
"Everyone
is competing for resources, for capability, for intellect, for
attention. So you have got to keep the pressure on constantly and
somehow make sure you get truth data out of all your suppliers," said
Fuller in an interview.
"You have got to treat them like partners because yelling at people doesn't do any good or make people move faster."
Bombardier does however have to deal with one requirement yet to be tackled by its competitors, according to Fuller.
On
Christmas Day 2009, a bomb hidden in the underwear of Umar Farouk
Abdulmutallab caused a fire but failed to explode on a Delta Airlines flight carrying 289 people.
That
led to what Fuller described as the 'underwear bomber rule', forcing
designers of new aircraft to prove the fuselage could withstand a
limited amount of damage without crashing.
"So
now you have to route things like hydraulics and electrical and fuel
systems down both sides of the airplane. That is how a fighter is
designed for battle damage," said Fuller, a 51-year-old former U.S. Navy
pilot.
"The C-Series is the first
airplane to have to comply with it, as will every other airplane in the
future. So now someone has to determine sufficient tests. It is a
complex business and keeping it ... all on schedule is very challenging." (Editing by Jeremy Laurence)

Bombardier
is moving into the detailed design phase on the larger CSeries variant
with plans for a high-density version intact despite a rejection by a
potential launch customer.
AirAsia earlier today selected the Airbus A320neo instead of a 160-seat version of the normally 130- to 145-seat CS300, the larger sister to the 110- to 130-seat CS100.
But
Bombardier says it remains "optimistic" about the high-density product,
and its specifications are being refined as the CS300 programme
transitions from the joint definition phase into the detailed design
phase in the company's internal development process.
The
high-density configuration is achieved without the need for additional
fuselage plugs. "It's not another stretch," Bombardier says. The extra
seating could require certain design changes, such as additional exit
doors, to meet airworthiness regulations, the company adds.
Other
potential CSeries buyers continue to discuss the 160-seat option with
Bombardier, the company says, adding that AirAsia remains a potential
sales target as well.
"AirAsia continues to be a customer who we look forward to doing business with," Bombardier says.
The baseline version of the CS300 is expected to follow the CS100 into service about a year later.
Bombardier
still expects the CS100 to enter service in June 2014, a delay of about
six months from the original schedule revealed in early November.
The CS100 moved from the joint definition phase into detailed design in July 2010.
Bombardier expects detailed design of the CS300 to be completed more rapidly because it is not a new aircraft but a derivative.

Stefan Paetow MCIJ
‏@stefanpaetow





@AvWeekRupa @APEXjon @APEXmary @jonostrower Second set of Bombardier C-Series wings leaving BFS tomorrow AM on Antonov An124 :-)