Boeing 737MAX

Boeing 737 production rates could shrink to as low as 21 aircraft a month in 2010, say its US suppliers

GKN Aerospace chief executive Marcus Bryson, who returned from a tour of US customers last week, says Boeing suppliers are "starting to talk in terms" of dramatic output cuts.

Narrow margins: Airbus and Boeing face pressure with the A320 and 737
By Max Kingsley-Jones

Although pressure has been mounting on Airbus and Boeing to move forward with their plans for single-aisle replacement designs, the rivals have been more concerned with developing their current programmes.

This is no surprise, given that between them, they have an order backlog for around 4,500 narrowbodies, split roughly 50/50, which at current rates will keep production running until 2015. But a new rival from Bombardier, the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G GTF-powered CSeries small airliner, is threatening the bottom end of the two established single-aisle families.

Boeing - in conjunction with CFM International - has upped the ante this year, rolling out a wide-ranging 737 upgrade package to boost performance and cabin comfort. Airbus, meanwhile, continues to make incremental improvements to the A320 family, addressing weight reductions and operating weight increases amid ongoing studies of a winglet programme.

Airbus is evaluating a re-engined A320 which could look something like this

Both programmes have reached important milestones this year, with Boeing delivering the 6,000th 737 (a 737-800 for Norwegian Air Shuttle, which was also the 2,868th 737 NG delivered), and Airbus handing over its 4,000th A320 family aircraft - an A319 for TAM. During the third quarter, Boeing also quietly shipped its 3,000th Next Generation 737.

The 737 performance improvement package (PIP) will arrive in mid-2011, delivering about a 2% cut in fuel burn on longer stages. It comprises the CFM56-7B Evolution powerplant providing a 1% improvement in overall aircraft efficiency, and a minor clean-up of the airframe's aerodynamics giving a further 1% gain.

EVOLUTION FLIGHT TRIALS

Flight trials of the CFM56-7B Evolution nacelle began in the number one (left-hand) position of a 737-900ER in August, with the test engine featuring a longer nacelle than the standard -7B.

Ahead of the PIP, a new cabin, dubbed the Sky Interior, will be introduced including features such as larger 777/787-style pivot bins, sculpted sidewalls and revised windows. The new interior, which Boeing hopes will deliver a 2-4dB cut in cabin noise, is due to enter service with FlyDubai in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Although Airbus views the 737 package as a catch-up move by its rival, it confesses that it is "talking with CFM" to see what of the CFM56-7B Evolution package is transferable to the A320's CFM56-5. Unlike the 737, however, the A320 models (except the A318) are also offered with the International Aero Engines V2500, meaning that Airbus will need to encourage both parties to pursue engine upgrades to ensure performance parity across the family.

With the 2,400 aircraft on backlog representing over six years of production, Airbus expects output will run for at least another decade and ultimately deliver more than 8,000 aircraft.


Joe Walker
Flight trials of the CFM56-7B Evolution nacelle began in the number one (left-hand) position of a 737-900ER in August


While Airbus has not announced any major new upgrade in response to the 737 PIP, an ongoing airframe weight saving effort should trim 250kg off A320s delivered from 2010, while more aerodynamic cleaning up means that aircraft delivered from January 2009 have a 1% improvement in drag standard.

This year, approval was given for an optional 1t increase in MTOW, achieved through a software upgrade to the flight-control system, which is retrofittable to A320-200s from MSN1903 (a 2002-delivered aircraft) onwards. The higher weight provides around 280km (150nm) additional range or a payload increase equivalent to 10 passengers.

An innovative new use for an A320 variant began in September when British Airways inaugurated A318 transatlantic services from London City airport to New York. To gain approval for operations into the tight London City runway, Airbus has developed changes to the flight controls on approach that are activated by a switch in the overhead panel. This allows the aircraft to have a different aerodynamic braking system for approach and touchdown.

Airbus is staying quiet on its plans for an A320 winglet programme after completing another round of test flights this year. However, Airbus sources say that it has decided to go ahead with a programme, but is yet to finalise whether to adopt Aviation Partners' design or its own "sharklet" device.

Looking towards the long term, there is little enthusiasm on either side of the Atlantic to move forward with all-new replacements, as neither airframer can yet see the requisite quantum leaps in airframe and engine technology.

Airbus's chief salesman John Leahy is confident that A320 and 737s will still be in production a decade from now, although concedes that this could be with "a different engine".

All the big-three engine makers have suitable new technology programmes under way. P&W leads the pack with its geared turbofan, which is due to enter service in 2013 on the Mitsubishi MRJ regional jet and the CSeries. CFM International is developing the Leap X turbofan/open rotor for service readiness from 2016, while Rolls-Royce is exploring developments.

Airbus is expected to decide whether to launch a re-engining upgrade for the A320 before the end of 2010 for a service entry in around 2015, with the GTF seen as a leading candidate. Boeing chief executive Jim McNerney has said he believes a re-engined narrowbody is viable in the near term and that a derivative re-engined 737 would cost in the range of 20-30% of a full development programme.

As a result, he says, "the re-engine case is stronger than I anticipated it would be, which doesn't mean that's what we'll decide". CFM has indicated it could accelerate the Leap X schedule - set for certification in 2016 - should it be selected to power China's new C919 airliner, which would open the door for Boeing to consider the engine for any 737 upgrade.

One of the drivers behind the two rivals' reluctance to be the first to blink is that their sales performance in the sector is fairly evenly matched. Last year, Airbus racked up 472 A320 family orders, and delivered 386 aircraft, while Boeing's 737 sales stood at 484 and deliveries at 290 (strike affected). In 2009 the 737 has a slight edge on its rival at the nine-month point with 71 net orders against 47 for the A320.

Deliveries are evenly matched, with Airbus having shipped 290 single-aisles and Boeing 280. Included in the Airbus shipments is the first A320 off the new Chinese assembly line in Tianjin, which is ultimately expected to produce four single-aisle aircraft a month.

SINGAPORE 2010: Boeing examines extending 737 nosegear to accommodate new engine
By Jon Ostrower

Amid increasing industry speculation about the imminent launch of re-engined narrowbodies, Flightglobal has learned how Boeing could engineer the tricky installation of an advanced turbofan under the wing of the 737.

To provide additional clearance under the wing to accommodate a larger engine nacelle, Boeing is examining the feasibility of raising the 737's nose landing gear, say industry sources. According to those familiar with the plan, an extension of the nose landing gear of 15cm (6in) would yield an estimated 5cm of additional diameter in the fan.

One internal industry assessment of the feasibility of a re-engined 737 seen by Flightglobal says that the aircraft can currently handle a 1.6m fan without any modification.

A new engine with a 1.6m fan would yield an approximate 12% improvement in specific fuel consumption, before any other airframe modifications are incorporated says the assessment. An engine with a 1.7m fan combined with a "modest increase" in landing gear height would yield fuel burn similar to a re-engined Airbus A320.

Any increase in the length of the nosegear is likely to require a larger wheel well, and by extension would reduce space available in the aircraft's forward avionics bay.

It was once believed that extending the 737's main landing gear would provide the required clearance. However, increasing the size of the main landing gear would yield a significant weight increase and complicate stowage.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president marketing Randy Tinseth recently confirmed to Flightglobal that Boeing had competed a successful technical feasibility study into the installation of a new engine on the 737, but that the modification would require "a lot of work".

The leading candidates for the re-engining are CFM International's Leap-X advanced turbofan and a possible offering from International Aero Engines that is likely to be based on partner Pratt & Whitney's geared turbofan.

P&W's commercial engines senior vice-president sales Bob Keady says that IAE is the "preferred route to market" for new engine offerings for either Airbus or Boeing single-aisle aircraft, but adds that P&W has been "doing some work" with both airframers about installing the GTF on their existing aircraft.

"We think we can have an effective installation of the GTF on the 737," he says.

Par curiosité je regardais les "nouvelles" garde au sol de l'A330F...
En relevant l'avant, si les moteurs sont devant le centre de gravité, ils montent eux aussi...

A330-200 : entre 0.67 et 0.72 cm entre le bas des nacelles et le sol (ce sont les RR qui sont les plus bas) selon le centre de gravité
A330-200F : entre 0.82 et 0.87 cm... tjs pour RR

Soit plus +15 cm...
La différence de diamètre de soufflante entre un trent 700 et un 800 est de 32 cm.

Boeing expects decision on re-engined 737 this year
By Jon Ostrower

Boeing CEO James McNerney has targeted 2010 for a decision on re-engining the 737, the first clear timeline the company has provided on the future of its narrowbody family of aircraft.

"That will be a call we make this year, it will be a mid-decade intro, if we do it," says McNerney, speaking at the Cowen and Company Aerospace/Defence Conference.

"What it finally gets down to is how big is the productivity and performance leap that's available throughout re-engining for our customers. If you try to force a re-engining and it doesn't provide enough productivity or performance for your customers all it does is suck orders out of your current airplane, and yet if it does provide a big enough leap, it will be worth it," he adds.


"We're studying it very seriously," McNerney emphasises.

McNerney also appeared to further reinforce the fact that Boeing is seriously expanding its offering on the 737 from its sole-source CFM International CFM56-7B engine to an option from Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce that could take the form of an offering by International Aero Engines.

"The engine guys, they are pushing very hard," says McNerney. "They are very convinced - virtually all three of the major ones are convinced - that they have the technology that will give us enough, but I think we've got to vet that and I think we've got to spend a lot of time talking to customers this year, but this will be the year we make that call."

Boeing recently announced that it had planned to make additional research and development resources available for the future of 737 and 777 product development, while appointing two teams to study advanced product development for both airframes.

Speaking recently at the Singapore air show, Airbus chief operating officer customers John Leahy said that he hoped a decision on re-engining the A320 would be "sorted out" prior to the Farnborough air show in July.

"Obviously What our competitor does will bear on our decision and Airbus sounds very aggressive on re-engining. I think we're both taking it very seriously," says McNerney.

McNerney says that the short term options for the 737 include re-engining the airframe or waiting to do a clean sheet design, and adds that his company remains keenly aware of the coming competition in the narrowbody market, especially from the 100 to 149-seat Bombardier CSeries.

"If we can offer between 12-15% productivity, I think you can't sit on a lead as you've got the Canadians and the Chinese, and the way we're going to win is though innovation. If you milk a product too long, you invite competition. I think building on a lead and sustaining innovation, is the best long term answer to keep us competitive. You'd rather obsolete yourself a little bit than have someone else do it."

Boeing considers 737 update

Technology: Company plans midsummer decision on whether to change to new engines

Expect a decision by midsummer on a new version of the world’s most popular jetliner, the 737, Boeing chairman Jim McNerney said Thursday.
If the company moves forward with an updated 737 with new-technology engines, McNerney told analysts at a conference put on by investment firm Cowen and Company, the new version should be rolling off the assembly lines by the middle of the decade.
A decision on the fate of the company’s best-selling plane could be followed in early 2011 by a decision on a redo for the company’s midsize twin-jet, the 777, the company chairman said.
The decision-making process is being driven in part by new technology developments and competitive pressure.
Canadian, Russian and Chinese planemakers are all entering the lower end of the 737 size range with new planes carrying 100 to 150 passengers powered by new-technology engines. And in the large size, twin-aisle market, Boeing rival Airbus is considering building a stretched version of its A350-XWB widebody called the A350-1000 that would encroach on the 777’s size range.
Airbus is also considering re-powering its A320, its competitor to the 737.
“What it finally gets down to is how big is the productivity and performance leap that’s available through re-engining for our customers,” said the Boeing CEO. “If you try to force a re-engining and it doesn’t provide enough productivity or performance for your customers, all it does is suck orders out of your current airplane, and yet if it does provide a big enough leap, it will be worth it,” he said.
Both Boeing and Airbus in recent years had considered creating fresh single-aisle planes using composite technology such as that used in Boeing’s new 787 Dreamliner.
But both aircraft makers, burned by new plane development that has proven far more expensive and difficult than they planned, have shied away from building clean-sheet aircraft in the single-aisle category until technology advances far enough that the new design will yield a major leap in efficiency.
Instead, they’re now looking at installing new engines that could improve fuel efficiency 12 percent to 15 percent over existing designs and, in the case of the 777, perhaps designing a new composite wing that could reduce weight, improve aerodynamics and cut maintenance.
Creating updates of the two planes rather than new designs could cost perhaps 30 percent of the costs of creating new planes from scratch. The updates could also mean more assurance of continuing business for the Western Washington factories where the planes are now built. Boeing has said it might hold another contest to determine where to build new-design planes as it did with the 787 Dreamliner. Boeing will build some of those planes in South Carolina. Boeing builds 737s in Renton and 777s in Everett.
Boeing could offer more than a single brand of engine for the 737 this time around. The 737 is now offered only with an engine built by CFM, a partnership of General Electric and France’s Snecma. All three engine-makers, Pratt &Whitney, Rolls Royce and General Electric, are designing new engines for the A320 and 737.
“The engine boys, they are pushing very hard,” McNerney said. “They are very convinced – virtually all three of the major ones are convinced – that they have the technology that will give us enough, but I think we’ve got to vet that, and I think we’ve got to spend a lot of time talking to customers this year, but this will be the year we make the call.”

• La décision pour le 737 sera prise avant le milieu de l'été. A mettre en parallèle avec celle que doit prendre Airbus d'ici juin pour l'A320.
  
• Un gain de productivité de 12% à 15% est visé.
  
• Livraison au milieu de la décennie. 2015 ?
  

• Une décision prise en début d'année 2011.
  
• Une nouvelle voilure composite pour diminuer le poids, améliorer l'aérodynamique et diminuer les coûts de maintenance.
  
• Un gain de productivité de 12% à 15% est aussi visé.
  

Details are emerging about possible structural modifications that could be introduced if Boeing decides to re-engine its Next Generation 737.

During an interview with ATI and Flightglobal at the Istat conference in Orlando, Florida, Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP of marketing Randy Tinseth explained, "We've talked in moderate detail about what has to be done. What we think we're going to have do is we'd have to have a new pylon, a new nacelle, strengthening of the wing and potential strengthening of the wingbox."

Tinseth explains that Boeing "doesn't really want to touch the main landing gear and we don't have to. We've looked a little bit around maybe some minor modifications around the nose landing gear, still yet to be determined."

He also explains that when a new powerplant is installed on the airframe, some minor additions are necessary to the avionics.

"What we have to do between now and the time we make a decision is to keep diving deep on the technical side and make sure that we're absolutely confident that we'll be able to go forward from a technical perspective," says Tinseth. "We haven't seen any show stoppers yet."

Taking time to address some theories that re-engined offerings from Boeing and Airbus are stop-gap measures until a new narrowbody is introduced Tinseth says: "Let's take a step back. We've looked at what it would take to replace today's 737 for a long time now, and we know it is all about significant improvements in efficiency, maybe 15% to 20%."

Tinseth says the wish list by customers includes up to a 30% improvement in airframe maintenance costs that could possibly incorporate composite technology from the 787, a wider cross section and a lower price.

"They're asking for everything as you might envision customers will do," says Tinseth. "So we have had a really difficult time figuring out the technology package we'd have to have to make that all happen, and frankly, if you make the decision to re-engine the aircraft, you raise that bar even higher."

That scenario makes re-engining far from an interim solution, says Tinseth. "If you raise the bar higher then you really have to continue to have a robust technology plan in place to someday replace the aircraft, but it gets harder."

Declining to supply specifics regarding Boeing's evaluations of the front runners to supply re-engined powerplants, CFM with its Leap X engine and Pratt & Whitney with the PW1000G geared turbofan, Tinseth says: "I don't want to give a scorecard. But I will say we're involved with all the engine manufacturers really trying to understand the technical feasibility of the benefits to understand the benefits those engines will provide."

However, Tinseth says what is interesting about the current dynamic is that "we're in a position today that I don't think we envisioned ourselves in five years ago, with the run up in fuel price, the engine manufacturers have acted very quickly to respond to that, and they've brought a number of very compelling solutions to the market."

He believes as some of those solutions develop they become "very intriguing when you can re-engine an airplane and provide up to a 15% fuel burn improvement".

Still, Tinseth says Boeing is going to take the time to make the right decision about re-engining the 737.

However, he admits: "These engines are available, and we have a lot of new competitors coming to the market with those engines, so it is changing the competitive landscape."

Tinseth says he's not shocked by new competitors entering the single-aisle market. "I'm not surprised by what the Japanese are doing, or what the Chinese are doing, or what the Russians are doing in terms of entering that market. It's a big market place - 19,000 airplanes over the next 20 years. I fully expect one or more of those new entrants will be successful."

As it moves closer to a decision on re-engining the 737, Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Jim Albaugh says his company must resist the urge to modify the 737 too much.

"You've got to watch out for the requirement creep. Our engineers would love to put every bell and whistle on this airplane that they know of, we have to resist that," says Albaugh.

"I will do everything I can to reduce the requirements creep, so it doesn't become an equivalent of a major change to the aircraft, and we certainly don't want it to become a new airplane. When we do a new airplane we want to bring the right technologies to it, which will really give us a leap over what we've built today."

For example, adding 787-style avionics and flight deck to the 737, while potentially desired by Boeing's customers, would serve to drive up the development cost and price of the re-engined aircraft.

"It's really driven by the technology that's available and can you close the business case for a re-engining," says Albaugh.

Other issues to consider include how long a production line would be in place for a re-engined 737 and then also understanding when new tehcnology might come along that "would really drive you towards a new airplane".

Albaugh adds that the re-engining question is a "very complex algorithm" that takes into account the dispatch reliability of an existing airframe with a new engine, as well as any maintenance implication of airlines introducing of a new 737 model along side Next Generation and Classic 737s, as would be the case with Southwest Airlines.

"It's not as easy to just say, you can get 10-15% efficiency, let's go do it," he says.

"One thing I've learned that there's nothing simple about a derivative airplane. There's certainly nothing simple about a re-engine. If you did a re-engine the pylon would change, the empennage would change, you'd have to raise the front gear a little but, drive some different loads into the airplane, drive some different loads into the wing."

Additionally, Boeing has begun wind tunnel tests on various designs for a re-engined 737, evaluating the aerodynamic characteristics of a larger engine, as well as a modified strut and pylon.

Albaugh says he holds weekly Friday meetings to discuss the progress on the re-enginging studies.

Boeing expects a re-engining decision to come in the latter part of this year.

Despite upstart rivals and Airbus' expected re-engining of its single-aisle A320, Boeing may be leaning toward forgoing re-engining its 737 in favor of a whole new airplane, according to a new report.
"(W)e think current thinking could be leaning towards a new airplane," Richard Safran of the Buckingham Research wrote after Boeing Capital Corp's annual investor's update, as reported by Leeham News & Comment.
Opting for an all-new single-aisle offering could put Boeing at a short-term disadvantage if Airbus went ahead with A320 re-engining, but Airbus probably would respond to such a decision by scrapping re-engining and launching its own new program, Safran wrote.
There are a couple of obvious advantages to a new program. For one, Boeing could leapfrog the upstarts, such as Bombardier's CSeries and upcoming offerings from Brazil, China and Russia, rather than playing catch up with an updated 737 that still would not be as efficient as the all-new planes. Also, an announcement of a forthcoming re-engined 737 could erode Boeing's deep backlog for existing 737s.
Boeing Boeing Chairman, President and Chief Executive Jim McNerney addressed this point during the company's first-quarter conference call, saying: "We try to make these decisions in a way where the current demand for current products is supported as we move into derivatives or all new airplanes, and we've got a process in place that we don't think is going to cannibalize the demand we see now."
Airplane leasing companies, which are huge customers, don't want to see their existing 737s devalued by a re-engined model (a replacement would do that too, but not as soon).
"The last thing we need is premature obsolescence like what we have in the computer industry," Steve Udvar-Hazy, chief executive of Air Lease LLC, and the founder and former head International Lease Finance Corp., the world's biggest airplane buyer, said during the annual conference of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders in March, according to an Aviation Week report.
Leeham's Scott Hamilton wrote: "We know from our own conversations that key Boeing customers want a new airplane rather than a re-engined aircraft."
Boeing executives are "reasonably convinced at this stage that there isn't yet a business case for an (re-engining) program," Hamilton added, saying Airbus executives are divided on the question.
But a new airplane is an expensive and risky proposition, particularly coming on the heels of the delayed 787 Dreamliner and 747-8 programs. And, even if Airbus follows suit in opting for a new plane over re-engining, waiting on a new program would give the upstarts more time to press their advantage and establish a foothold in what has been Boeing and Airbus turf. Alternatively, it could take the wind out of their sales, as airlines opt to wait for the new planes.
Airbus, of course, is in the middle of its A350 XWB program, still having troubles ramping up A380 production levels and just saw a World Trade Organization panel rule that European government launch aid to Airbus programs violated trade rules on subsidies.
Both Boeing and Airbus have promised a decision by the end of this year.
Getting back to the Washington perspective, Hamilton noted in a separate post that a 737 replacement could be built elsewhere, while a re-engined 737 would be sure to stay in state.
"Boeing Commercial President Jim Albaugh is on record saying he wants to build the 737 replacement airplane right here in Puget Sound," Hamilton wrote. "But he added a significant caveat: it depends on labor. And the IAM still doesn't get it."
The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers has to be more willing to compromise, and Washington still has "business climate issues affecting Boeing, Washington aerospace more broadly and business in general that need to be adjusted," Hamilton said.