Bonsoir,
Je reprends l'info d'Artway
Annulation des commandes de l'A400M en Afrique du Sud.
Je pointe sur des liens que j'avais identifié ces derniers jours sur le contexte en Afsud
http://www.saairforce.co.za/news-and-events/826/r47bn-airbus-arms-deal-bombshell
Pas d'appel d'offre pour l'A400 M
Mais y en a t'il besoin ?
http://www.saairforce.co.za/news-and-events/827/armscor-admits-maintenance-blooper-helped-to-blow-up-airbus-costs
Non prise en compte des couts de maintenance dans l'estimation de l'enveloppe initiale
http://www.saairforce.co.za/news-and-events/830/a400m-conundrums
Some clarity arrived over the weekend when Independent Group newspapers quoted Armscor's general manager of acquisitions Sipho Mkwanazi as saying the R47 billion included estimates for the full maintenance and life-cycle cost of the eight aircraft (over at least 30 years), "spare parts, retention of skills and the SA National Defence Force having to pay for private freight charters for six years (to 2016) while it waits for delivery."
Confirmation + intégration des coûts pour la location d'avions pour l'intérim
What will the A400M replace?
But what is the A400M to replace? Much is being made of the aircraft replacing the C130, seven of which have served the SAAF since 1963. They are indeed old, but can soldier on a few more years yet. If the A400M was to replace the C130 on a one-for-one basis, what about Mkwanazi 's comment on charter flights?
Indeed, what to make of the comment made by a senior air force officer at last week's defenceWeb maritime conference that the 13 new Maritime Patrol/Security Aircraft to be acquired shortly under Project Saucepan for delivery around 2016 - funds permitting - will actually replace the C130 as well as the older Douglas C47TP Dakota and the Casa C212 Aviocar and C235 aircraft currently in service with the SAAF's transport squadrons. This was not the first time I had heard this from senior SAAF personalities.
So, spin aside, the A400M will not replace the C130. It will actually replace expensive Ilyushin Il-76 "Candid" charter flights as well as the Boeing 707 airborne refuellers/electronic warfare aircraft, the last of which retired in July 2007.
Pour fixer les idées de ce à quoi les A400M auraient pu servir là bas !
Qu'est ce qu'il va se passer pour les industriels partenaires en AFSUD
Currently 192 A400Ms are on order for nine air forces. SA is a risk-sharing partner in the programme, meaning local companies Aerosud and Denel Saab Aerostructures (DSA) stand to profit - or otherwise - from the programme. (DSA posted a loss of R452.6 million for the year to March, largely because of delays in the A400M programme. Risk-sharing indeed!)
Should we walk away, those two companies, which have heavily invested in the project - at face value stand to lose out (though it may be worth checking the fine print.)
Based on the 2005 price, the A400M would have cost the taxpayer just under R1 billion each. C17s are available at about R1.5 billion each - but without the risk-sharing. Should SA buy C17s, Boeing, for which Aerosud and DSA are already doing work, would certainly transfer technology and skills, offsetting at least some of the opportunity lost with the A400M.
The question now is what is it worth to the taxpayer to support DSA, Aerosud, Omnipless and Saab South Africa as well as the Mbeki-administration's dream of building a globally competitive, knowledge-intensive aerospace industry.
It is not clear what SA - or more particularly these companies - stand to make out of the programme. It was reported circa 2005 that if SA exercised its option for all 14 aircraft - eight ordered and an option for six more - it would have had the right to supply 7.2% of the value of the 20 billion euro programme - or 1.44 billion euro (R15.3 billion at the current exchange rate). By taking just eight, that right will be diluted by about half.
Les enjeux sont importants pour l'industrie là bas.
Position de repli : prendre des C17 et négocier de rentrer dans le programme ?
Enfin tout ça vu du nord, semble très politique.
Forcément exacerbé par les retards... (sachant que dans le cas de l'AFSUD y a pas vraiement d'avions à remplacer... soit ils déjà à la retraite soit c'est déjà des locations ponctuelles !).
Mauvaise nouvelle en tout cas pour Airbus
Mauvaise nouvelle je pense pour l'industrie locale.
Bonne soirée