Actualités de Boeing

Boeing Co. and United Technologies Corp. have been stockpiling titanium parts from a Russian producer in case economic tensions between Washington and Moscow disrupt supplies of the metal critical to building jetliners.

The companies' efforts to amass reserves, which hasn't been previously disclosed, began around March as Russia's moves toward annexing the Ukrainian region of Crimea triggered anger from Western governments, according to an industry official familiar with the planning.

First, costs deferred to the future in accounting for 787 Dreamliner production continued to rise beyond the peak of $25 billion Boeing had set a year ago.
Second, the company’s projection of increased cash flow ahead was lower than analysts had hoped.
Richard Safran, an analyst with Buckingham Research, advised stock holders to sell and outlined a “bearish thesis” that Boeing won’t generate as much cash as investors expect in the years ahead.
He expressed concern both about Boeing’s ability to maintain the current 777 production rate and its ability to reduce 787 costs.

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Given the billions of costs on the 787 program, coupled with the large losses on the 747-8 (itself also adversely affected by the 787 program delays), Boeing’s executive and board of directors became understandably nervous about green-lighting new airplane programs when the 787 and 747-8 were still in disarray. But that was in 2011, at a time when the 787 and 747-8 had yet to be delivered and a decision had to be made: launch the MAX or launch the New Small Airplane. The commercial unit wanted to go with the NSA. Chicago made the decision to go with the MAX, a decision forced upon executives by Airbus’ growing runaway success with the A320neo and a surprise capture of the order from American Airlines.
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The prospect of Boeing launching one new small airplane to replace the 757, let alone two NSAs to cover the entire 130-220 seat spectrum, scares the investment community and some lessors. The billions of dollars in costs and the impact on the MAX values are at the forefront of concerns. But to do nothing risks Boeing’s presence in the single aisle space. The 737-7 has but a sliver of the market share in this space, and we understand from our Market Intelligence Boeing doesn’t even want to build this airplane. The 737-9 has already lost the market share battle to the standard A321neo and will be further marginalized with the A321neoLR. Lessors are reluctant to buy the 737-9 because of its limited market appeal. This reduces the MAX line to predominately one model, the 737-8.
While investors look at the expense involved in developing one or two NSAs, lessors fear the NSAs will drive residual values down on the 737-8 before they have a chance to get their return on investment on the MAX.
Launching the NSA sooner than later will certainly put a chill on the MAX, but holding off too long will set Boeing back decades in its fight with Airbus. The prevailing view in Boeing Commercial Airplanes with those we have talked with is that there will never be another new airplane as long as Jim McNerney is CEO. The expectation is that he will remain in power through 2016 to see the 100th anniversary of Boeing. What his presumed successor, President and Chief Operating Officer Dennis Muilenburg, will be willing to do is a big question mark. What the hand-picked McNerney board of directors will be willing to approve upon a Muilenburg recommendation is also food for thought.

• Boeing is studying a New Light Twin (NLT) and New Single Aisle (NSA) to replace the 757 and 737 airplanes.
  
• The tipping point between an efficient NSA and the NLT is around the passenger size of the 757-200.
  
• Boeing is evaluating materials, including metals and composites, for the NAS and the manufacturing process, which will also be a determining factor in the materials for the new airplane.
  
• Engine advances for the 777X’s GE9X are beyond the GEnx and CFM LEAP of today and could help drive the next new small engine technology.
  
• Although having a miniscule portion of the 100-150 seat market, Boeing today plans to continue participation in at least the 130 or 150 seat sector even as airplane size moves up every year.
  

Boeing 787 deferred production costs rise nearly $1 billion in 4Q to $26.149b. Even bearish estimates put the forecast rise at $800m.

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) 28 Janvier 2015