par Beochien Sam 28 Aoû 2010 - 8:38
Bonjour !
Peut être de quoi relativiser la chasse aux fauteurs de retards que mène Boeing !
Ce n'est pas moi, ce sont toujours les ... autres 7 fautifs pour 7 retards, tout sauf Boeing, bien sûr !
Leurs chers "Risk Partners" au passage, quand il s'agit de leur demander d'investir à la place de Boeing !
j'ai un peu de mal à me figurer à quoi ressemblera le prochain tour de table, pour le prochain avion de Boeing, et quels contrats seront acceptés !
Une feuille intéressante de Puget Sound, le Seattle Bizz Journal !
Prédit que des délais vers Mai-Juillet 2011 étaient prévisibles pour tout le monde, (Et trois analystes), tout le monde, ou presque, sauf les aveugles bien sûr !
Et un statisticien Tim Raetzloff, n'a eu aucun mal à voir les délais s'accumuler, juste en rentrant dans son computer les données des vols d'essais !
Il en a sorti plus de renseignements qu'une escouade d'analystes de l'UBS ! Ouaf !
De quoi peut être remettre à sa vraie valeur, le Haro sur le baudet RR, lesquels, d'ailleurs auraient tout intérêt à s'expliquer dés qu'ils auront un peu balayé le local de leur banc de test !
-------------- L'article du Seattle Bizz Journal -----------------
http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/blog/2010/08/analysts_further_boeing_787_delays_no_surprise.html
Analysts: Boeing 787 delayed until spring
Friday, August 27, 2010, 12:15pm PDT | Modified: Friday, August 27, 2010, 12:22pm
Wall Street seems to be taking Boeing’s Friday announcement of further 787 delays in stride, with Boeing stock up Friday — at least partly because many observers already had concluded the test program was so far behind that Boeing couldn’t deliver any Dreamliners in 2010.
“Wall Street is so immune to more delays, as long as they aren’t substantial delays,” said aerospace analyst Scott Hamilton, president of Issaquah-based Leeham Co. LLC.
He and Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst for the Teal Group, outside Washington, D.C., believe the delivery delays could now stretch into spring.
“We’d had this in our forecast a long time ago. Nobody believed in 2010,” he said about the delay. “Boeing has had a consistent pattern of being very aggressive, and setting themselves up for disappointment with the schedule.”
While the recent news pins most of the new delays on the failure of a test Rolls Royce engine in England, Boeing has been falling behind its previously stated goal of 2,400 test hours for the 787 by Sept. 15. This was needed to achieve FAA certification for the aircraft, and deliver it by the end of 2010.
As early as April, Edmonds statistician Tim Raetzloff, who also operates a business computer company, was concluding the program wasn’t proceeding rapidly enough to make that September deadline.
Raetzloff has been keeping detailed records of each day's test flight results, and posting them on his website.
“Statistically it looked impossible to me, even before the engine blow-up. This looks like a really convenient excuse,” he said.
In New York, UBS Securities analyst David Strauss has been coming to a similar conclusion.
In an Aug. 23 report, entitled “787 Flight test Tracker - Time Running Out,” he said the testing schedule trailed the required hours by 36 percent.
“We estimate Boeing will not complete its first Rolls Royce flight test program until Nov-Dec, with first delivery in Q1,” the report said.
Even more troubled is the GE variant, which Strauss’ report said had flown just over 100 hours by Aug. 10, versus the 500 hours UBS had projected.
Aboulafia, Hamilton and Raetzloff all think deliveries will be even later than the first quarter.
Raetzloff doesn’t think Boeing can finished the required 2,400 hours until mid-February. Add three months needed for FAA certification?
“I’m thinking July,” Raetzloff said about first delivery. Aboulafia thinks "April or May."
As for Airbus’ competing A350, and recent reports that it’s running late on its projected 2013 delivery date, (which Airbus has denied)?
Hamilton points out that Airbus has acknowledged that it has already eaten up most of the margins in its own development schedule.
“When you’ve eaten the margins up this far in advance of entry into service, I don’t see how there won’t be delays,” he said.
Aboulafia agreed, and expects two years of A350 delays. "We’ve always had 2015 as a realistic date for the A350,” he said.
Read more: Analysts: Boeing 787 delayed until spring - Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle)
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