Bonjour !
L'édito que m'envoie Aspire aviation !
Bien fait !
C'es HK Aviation, Vs Cathay Pacific, et A380 vs B748, sur fond de fret ...
Long et complexe, pour les courageux !
D'aprés eux, ce sera le 748 pour Cathay !
----------------- Aspire, le lien, et un extrait ------------
Il se copie bien, et avec les images, je le laisse complet !
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2011/06/14/hong-kong-airlines-a380-order/
A380 more suitable for Hong Kong Airlines than Cathay
Posted: 14 Jun 2011 04:00 AM PDT
Since announcing its memorandum of understanding (MoU) for 30 Boeing 787-9
Dreamliners, 2 787-8 VIPs and 6 Boeing 777F freighters at this March’s
Asian Aerospace in Hong Kong, Hong Kong Airlines is going to sign yet
another memorandum of understanding (MoU) for 5 of the world’s largest
passenger aircraft, the Airbus A380 superjumbo as well as options for 5
more examples,
Aspire Aviation learned, in a clear sign to challenge Hong Kong’s largest carrier Cathay Pacific Airways.
The news of Hong Kong Airlines’ order for the A380 was confirmed
by a company spokeswoman to the media yesterday, ending weeks of
rumours that the A380 deal was being rekindled after failing through
owing to procedural errors involved in the negotiation process between
HNA Group, Hong Kong Airlines’ parent, and European aircraft
manufacturer Airbus this March.
This is yet another testament to Hong Kong Airlines’ ambitious growth
plan which adds to the airline’s backlog of aircraft orders, including
30 Airbus A320s, 4 A330-300s, 8 A330-200s yet to be delivered and 15
A350-900 XWB (Extra Wide Body) aircraft. Along with the MoU for 38
Boeing aircraft announced earlier this year, coupled with this A380 MOU,
the airline’s backlog of firm orders and commitments would total 85
aircraft, in line with Cathay Pacific’s existing order backlog for 88
aircraft, which is expected to order an additional 14 Boeing 777
aircraft in the near future, possibly including around 4 Boeing 777F
freighters,
Aspire Aviation was told by its source at the oneworld alliance member.
Interestingly, Cathay Pacific has in fact evaluated the A380
superjumbo on multiple occasions within the last few years but was not
convinced by the its business case.
Aspire Aviation nonetheless
views the Airbus A380 being more suitable for Hong Kong Airlines than
Cathay Pacific, due to the decidedly different commercial strategies
they adopt and the latter’s reliance on underbelly cargo to generate
glamorous profits.
For instance, Hong Kong Airlines seems to be focusing more on its
passenger volume whereas Cathay Pacific puts a significant emphasis on
not only passenger yields, but also cargo yields.
Image Courtesy of Airbus
Only 30% of Cathay Pacific’s HK$25.9 billion (US$3.3 billion) cargo
revenues in 2010 was generated by dedicated freighter flights whereas
the remainder were carried in the underbelly cargo space of passenger
aircraft, and both the Boeing 747-8I Intercontinental and Airbus A380
have significantly smaller revenue cargo volumes than the Boeing
777-300ER, which airlines can sell this remaining cargo space after all
the luggage of passengers have been loaded onto the aircraft to carry
lucrative, high profit-margin cargo packages.
The A380 has a total cargo volume of 6,191 cubic feet and a revenue
cargo volume of 3,336 cubic feet whereas the 747-8I has a total cargo
volume of 5,705 cu. ft but a revenue cargo volume of 3,895 cu. ft.
Similarly, the 777-300ER has a total cargo volume of 7,120 cu. ft. and a
revenue cargo volume of 5,191 cu. ft.
As Cathay Pacific will be evaluating the very large airplanes (VLA)
within the next few years, the size of the revenue cargo volume is
critical in Cathay’s evaluation and
Aspire Aviation believes
this makes the 747-8I Intercontinental the frontrunner in any VLA
competition at the carrier, and with not only Airbus conducting
aggressive pricing on its A380, but also Boeing pushing hard on the
747-8I Intercontinental sales, a fierce competition is nothing but a
certainty and an inevitable dogfight is inevitably going to follow.
“Sometime in the next two years we will have a good look at the large
aircraft, the 747-8I and A380,” Cathay Pacific chief executive John
Slosar conceded.
Meanwhile, another factor that works in the favour of very large
airplane (VLA) and increases the prospect of a niche very large airplane
(VLA) fleet at Cathay Pacific is the anticipated capacity constraint at
Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA), which has recently started a
public consultation on the possibility of constructing a third runway at
the airport to relieve it from reaching a capacity saturation point in
2020, a controversial issue under heated debate in the local community
(“Hong Kong Airport’s 3rd runway debate misguided“,
10th Jun 11). Even if the Hong Kong government gives an official
go-ahead to the multibillion infrastructure project, the construction of
the 3rd runway would take another decade and it will be 10 years from
now before the new runway enters service.
While the capacity constraint at HKIA is undoubtedly a factor in Cathay’s evaluation of very large airplane,
Aspire Aviation thinks it may not be as significant a factor as it currently stands.
Should HK government give the go-ahead to the construction of the third
runway in next year, the runway capacity saturation issue may be
short-lived one for a few years, as the new runway would enter service
10 years from now, thereby implies a few years of runway capacity
shortage. This is subject to change, however, and could prove to be a
determining factor should the Hong Kong government fail to secure
approval from lawmakers to build the third runway.
Instead, Cathay’s evaluation of the very large airplane (VLA) is
likely to be centered on its frequency-based business model and whether
the Boeing 747-8I Intercontinental or Airbus A380 fits the airline’s
operations or not. Even if CX weighs an order for the 747-8I or A380,
any capacity growth must not come at the expense of frequencies or
passenger and cargo yields, as economic theories state that closer the
preferred departure time and the actual departure time, the highest
possibility that this potential demand is turned into actual demand.
This is crucial to Cathay Pacific’s profitability as last-minute, walkup
business travellers are often price-inelastic and pay the highest
ticket price on the flight. As Cathay Pacific intends to remain as a
premium airline going forward, its emphasis on frequencies is unlikely
to change. Therefore any new VLA, either the 747-8I or A380, must enable
Cathay to grow its passenger volume while maintaining or even
increasing its passenger yields.
“It’s important for our customers not to have to think about whether
we have a flight or not when they want to travel. We don’t want them to
have to think about the schedule. We have the perfect aircraft types in
their category right now in the 777 and A330. They are the ultimate in
efficiency. Frequency is so important; we want four or five flights a
day so we cover the clock,” Cathay Pacific chief executive John Slosar
reiterated.
Unlike Cathay, Hong Kong Airlines is significantly less reliant on
premium passengers and cargo. The airline operates 2 leased Airbus
A330-200F freighters and a single Boeing 737-300F freighter on
intra-Asian cargo routes and even with its MoU for 5 Boeing 777F
freighters, the scale of its cargo operations is hardly comparable to
those of Cathay Pacific, which operates 12 Boeing 747-400 BCF (Boeing
Converted Freighter), 6 B747-400F freighters and 6 B747-400ERF (Extended
Range Freighters) and has 10 of the world’s largest freight airplane,
the Boeing 747-8F freighters on order.
Notwithstanding the A380 fitting Hong Kong Airlines’ business model
better than it fits Cathay’s one and despite ordering the A380 carries
an advertising effect as an associated benefit, Hong Kong Airlines’
order for the A380 raises more questions than answers, at least in the
foreseeable future.
For instance, Hong Kong Airlines has a relatively low brand
recognition which is particularly important in attracting lucrative
business travellers. According to the investment bank Royal Bank of
Scotland (RBS), Hong Kong Airlines only accounts for less than 10% of
total outbound passenger traffic in Hong Kong. The airline also engages
in heavy discounting, selling economy class and even business class
tickets at rock bottom prices, with a roundtrip economy class ticket
from Hong Kong to Beijing at prices as low as HKD$780 (US$100) excluding
taxes and fuel surcharges, and a roundtrip business class ticket from
Hong Kong to Shanghai at prices as low as HK$4,200 (US$538), even
considerably cheaper than a comparable full-price economy class ticket
at Cathay Pacific.
While Hong Kong Airlines does have a relatively lower cost base,
including a cheaper labour cost structure when compared to its
competitors, a lack of ancillary revenue streams, which remains untapped
of at the moment, coupled with the aggressive pricing strategy it
adopts, makes the passenger yields and profit margins on its flights,
measured in terms of revenue per revenue passenger kilometres (RPK)
under considerable pressure.
As Hong Kong Airlines targets the lower end segment of the business
travel market, it has to build a considerably larger lounge at Hong Kong
International Airport and add more features, including showering
facilities, personal seats which enable premium passengers to watch
on-demand movies and listen to music which are not currently included
and build a more competitive frequent flier programme which does not yet
have the scale and convenience of the competing Marco Polo Club at
Cathay Pacific which it intends to compete with.
It is capital-intensive and time costly to establish a strong brand
where the incumbent undeniably has an advantage and it needs a more
solid, credible and clearer business strategy, not just the Airbus A380,
in achieving this goal and improving the overall profitability of the
group, which has made a profit of HK$110 million (US$14 million) in
2010, its first profit since the airline’s establishment in 2006.
“The best airlines in the world operate A380s, so if we want to be
one of the best, we need to add the A380 to our fleet,” a Hong Kong
Airlines official told flightglobal on condition of anonymity.
Image Courtesy of Lukas Jenkner
A point which is noteworthy is, the biggest aircraft in Hong Kong
Airlines’ existing fleet is the 283-seat A330-200 in a two-class
configuration, ordering the A380 at this early stage may unavoidably
create a capacity gap within its fleet, which will still remain evident
and significant even as the larger A330-300 sibling and A350-900 XWB
enter service. Therefore it remains to be seen if Hong Kong Airlines is
able to fill up the A380 on trunk routes which Hong Kong Airlines are
not flying to, including New York, London and Sydney, without decimating
its passenger yields by discounting on the flights.
While passenger yields are admittedly going to improve as the
airline’s market share and leverage grows over time, and there is a huge
growth potential lying ahead of Hong Kong Airlines, a clear and
credible strategic plan to realise the airline’ fullest potential has to
be laid out.
Furthermore, while the Asia/Pacific aviation market is a promising
one for carriers in the region including Hong Kong Airlines, Hong Kong
Airlines also has to prove that it is different from its parent HNA
Group and is able to avoid the missteps and mistakes made by its parent
HNA Group, should it intend to launch an initial public offering (IPO)
at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) in 2012 or 2013 and convince
investors to invest in the airline.
HNA Group, which owns 45% of shares in Hong Kong Airlines and Hong
Kong Express Airways, launched a restructuring programme aimed at
simplifying its complicated shareholding structure in 2007 and created
Grand China Air to acquire the remaining shares of Shanxi Airlines,
Chang’an Airlines and China Xinhua Airlines into a single, seamless
operation. Nearly half a decade on, the simplifying process has proved
to be a painstakingly slow one, with only Shanxi Airlines being
successfully merged into Hainan Airlines (“Profitability of Chinese Carriers“,
Aspire Aviation Store, May 2011). China Xinhua Airlines and Chang’an Airlines remain 67.59% and 87.32%, respectively, owned by Hainan Airlines.
A separate backdoor listing by HNA Group for its aircraft leasing arm
Hong Kong Aviation Capital Leasing also failed in 2010 through an
acquisition of shares in Hong Kong-listed Lung Cheong International
Holdings.
Similarly, the possible merger between Hong Kong Airlines and Hong
Kong Express which is currently being considered should be carried out
in a smooth and efficient manner in order to consolidate its brands and
strengthen its brand awareness instead of creating unnecessary brand
confusions among business travellers.
Last but not least, while Hong Kong Airlines’ order for the A380 is a
positive step and is a testament to its ambitious growth plan, such an
order at this early stage nevertheless represents a significant risk for
the carrier and a clear strategic plan, not just by ordering the A380s,
needs to be formed in order for the carrier to become one of the best
airlines in the world and realise its fullest potential.
JPRS
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par Poncho (Admin) Lun 11 Avr 2011 - 8:23
GE ... Ils protégent peut être leur "Investissement" sur le 748 !
.... dans un sens il a raison vu la stratégie de cathay ....basé sur la fréquence + fret 
(Compensation signée today, 95 Millions de A$ )