Allez je le mets ici, cet Airinsight !
Une comparaison de Addison Schönland, sur les nouveaux BI, WB, particulièrement les 358 et les 788-9 !
Intéressant, c'est basé sur un graphe de Boeing !
Le A358 certainement un peu surestimé côté economie, il est plutôt jugé sur sa capacité pax !
On voit quand même nettement le trou laissé par le A332 vieillissant, ... vive le 332NEO .... ou un 358 à MTOW (Et un vrai poids réel) réduits !
Assumant que le marché se déplace vers de plus hautes capacité, la cible peut bouger un peu, en faveur d'Airbus ... mais le B777XX va l'attendre de l'autre côté
!
Bon, le "Vrai" jeu des capacités pax, va continuer dans la polémique, et Boeing va continuer d'essayer de biaiser,
les clients de ce côté savent bien ce qu'ils veulent!
L'influence sera limitée ... sauf pour alimenter les blog's et les analystes de tout poil !
-----------De Airinsight, le lien et un extrait --------------
Different Assumptions Yield Different Airplanes
Posted on May 18, 2012 by Addison Schonland
Boeing and Airbus have different assumptions on the future of air travel, which impacts their product lines. Airbus assumes that growth in aircraft size will continue, and that with increasing congestion at airports, larger aircraft will be needed. Boeing views route dispersion and the use of smaller cities for point-to-point service, avoiding hubs, as a strong element of the future air travel system. Both are right, to some degree, but their focus is impacted market positioning.
Boeing has analyzed the market potential of the 787-8 as 1,200 aircraft, a large market for twin-aisle aircraft (the 767 has sold somewhat more than 1,000 airplanes compared with multiples of that for the 737).
In this process, it appears to be moving upward in its estimates of seat size, at least in its comparative economics numbers in recent years. Boeing charts used to have the 787-8 at 210 seats, but have grown their three class estimates to 241 for the same model, despite ANA having 157 seats and JAL 186 seats on their aircraft (largely because early models are grossly overweight, and they could be payload constrained).
Why the sudden growth? The A350-800 is the reason, as it will be economically competitive with both the 787-8 and -9, and Boeing is increasing the number of seats on the 787-8 to put its “best foot forward” in comparative economic analyses. We are referring to the seat size on the chart going from 210 to 241 below. Boeing needs to show better 787-8 economics with respect to the A350-800, and the easiest way is to change assumptions on seating to show better comparative economics. Seating of 210 for 3 class appears to be the right number, given how current operators have configured the airplane.
Airbus largely ignored the under 250 seat market segment when designing the A350XWB. The A350-800 competes with the 787-9, leaving the smaller 787-8 to itself. Airbus claims the market is up-sizing and the extra capacity of the larger airplane is needed. Boeing believes the smaller airplane is needed for long-thin routes to replace 757 and 767 models.
The chart below, from a presentation by Brad Till, Boeing’s Managing Director Aircraft Programs and Valuations, shows the 787-8 and the A350-800 to be larger-capacity airplanes than current offerings. The salient question is whether this is indicative of the need for an airplane that is smaller than the A350-800, or whether the market has moved upwards.
We know that up-sizing is occurring in the narrow-body market as the proportion of orders for larger models in both the 737 and A320 families is increasing, and activities in the smaller models is moribund.
Is the same happening in the wide body market?
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par Beochien Jeu 29 Mar 2012 - 8:13
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